U.S. and Chinese Anti-Satellite Weapon Tests could Provoke India, Pakistan, and Iran to Follow Suit
[Theresa] Hitchens noted that the American action could also embolden China. There were indications that the Chinese leadership was surprised by the strong, negative reaction to their January 2007 ASAT test. This reaction possibly undercut ASAT advocates within China, because they had done something that hurt China’s image abroad. However, with the American action the Chinese hawks are probably claiming vindication: they were right because the Americans have now done the same thing.
Similarly, the Chinese and American actions may lead to an Indian military space program. Members of the Indian military have been unsuccessfully arguing for a military space program for some time now. But there are indications that the advocates are now gaining traction, in part because of comparisons to what happened to India in regards to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, where India detonated a bomb after the treaty had been enacted, and earned the enmity of much of the world. Indian military space advocates can now argue that if there is going to be an “ASAT arms race” between the major powers, and if this eventually leads to some kind of negotiated constraints on space weapons, India should get into the game now, before any constraints are imposed, and thereby both secure its capability and a negotiating position. And of course if India does this, Pakistan will feel pressured to respond. Iran may also feel a need to develop a similar capability.
Day, Dwayne. "Will we Burn in Heaven like we do Down Here?." The Space Review. March 10, 2008.