If dissuasion is pursued with respect to illegal space weapons, it may simply cause US adversaries to produce more and better types of links-based OCS systems that fall outside of international law. Even though some space weapons have proven ineffective, like the GPS jammer used against coalition forces in Iraqi Freedom, others like Cuba’s satellite jammers that targeted the Voice of America broadcast have been remarkably capable at affecting US space systems. Furthermore, these types of disruptive technologies provide a glimpse as to how future adversaries will attempt to deny the US access to space.116 It seems that a combination of other policy tools may present the most viable option to preventing a space arms race. By leveraging existing space law, advocating space arms control, increasing economic interdependence, and using skillful diplomacy, the United States may prevent a space race as well as avoid the counterproductive results likely to arise from a dissuasive strategy. Table 6 reveals that dissuasion’s success is in fact most likely to occur when a combination of several policy tools are employed simultaneously. However, the 2002 NSS and 2001 QDR do not describe dissuasion in this manner. Instead, both documents focus on increasing military superiority to such a high level that the enemy or allies give up weapons development. Unfortunately, the conditions are not present for this policy as currently defined to succeed.

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Meteyer, David O. The Art of Peace: Dissuading China from Developing Counter-Space Weapons. USAF Academy, CO: USAF Institute for National Security Studies, August 2005. [ 20 quotes ] [ page 81 ]