We argue that additional proliferation of nuclear weapons, rather than new arms races, is the most likely outcome of a renewed interest in space warfare. Proliferation will be a natural consequence of more nations feeling less secure as a result of space weapons. Adverse proliferation consequences could be both direct and indirect. China and Russia will likely feel most directly threatened by U.S. space warfare initiatives. Beijing will likely increase its nuclear weapon requirements to counter increased threat perceptions without engaging in an arms race, while Moscow will probably seek to adjust the contraction of its nuclear arsenal to the extent the Kremlin believes that its deterrent might be challenged by U.S. initiatives. Indirect, horizontal proliferation is likely to result from greater strains in major power relations and in U.S.-alliance ties triggered by U.S. initiatives to dominate space. In the absence of united fronts against proliferation by major powers and by America's friends and allies, international efforts to strengthen nonproliferation and disarmament norms are likely to fail, and hedging strategies against a more worrisome future are likely to multiply.

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Katz-Hyman, Michael and Michael Krepon. "Viewpoint: Space Weapons and Proliferation." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 12, No. 2 (July 2005): 323-341. [ 15 quotes ] [ page 324 ]