Media reports about a forthcoming NASA study reveal that the risk posed by orbital debris to spacecraft may be higher than previously thought. Leaked information from the study suggests that shuttles now face a 1-in-54 to 1-in-113 chance of being destroyed by space debris. This is much greater than the stated NASA program goals of a 1-in-200 chance. In addition, NASA found that space debris accounts for half of the risk associated with spaceflights and collisions with space debris account for 11 of the 20 problems that could be most fatal to a shuttle and its crew. Because there is disagreement within NASA as to the likelihood of a fatal collision between space debris and the shuttle, NASA officials plan to conduct further study to provide more clarity.

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Collard-Wexler, Simon, Thomas Graham et al. Space Security 2006. Waterloo, Ontario: Space Security Index, July 2006. [ 26 quotes ] [ page 38 ]