Why have missile defense critics been so wrong in their predictions? In short, numerous factors drive armament decisions, and the simplistic action-reaction formulation does not account for most of them. For example, the theory ignores such basic factors as:

• competing foreign policy goals and defense requirements,


• inter- and intraservice rivalries,


• bureaucratic politics,


• the specific character and style of political and social systems,


• electoral politics,


• resource availability or limitations,


• organizational momentum, and


• technological innovation/limitation.

Even highly personal and idiosyncratic factors can drive armament decisionmaking. Adolf Hitler, for example, canceled the V-2 program on the basis of a bad dream he had about the missile. Only the combined efforts of Albert Speer and Wernher von Braun got the program back on track.

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Payne, Keith R. "Action-Reaction Metaphysics and Negligence." Washington Quarterly. Vol. 24, No. 4 (Autumn 2001): 109-121. [ 3 quotes ] [ page 116-7 ]