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Difficulty Identifying Attackers Creates Incentives for Pre-Emptive Strikes with Space Weapons
 
Other characteristics of the space environment reinforce space weapon?s destabilizing tendencies. The first is anonymity. Especially with respect to ASAT weapons, space may provide a degree of plausible deniability that would encourage attacks on space assets. The vastness of space and its isolation from population centers may also contribute to a perceived lack of collateral damage. An adversary could launch an attack on space assets with little or no risk of directly harming any human population. A related consideration for the US is that it may be hard pressed to justify responding to such a non-lethal attack, in terms of human lives, even if it vaporized billions of dollars in assets and undermined valuable earth services. These considerations could all reinforce an adversary's inclination to preemptively attack in space. Short of achieving absolute space supremacy, there is little that the US could do to avert this situation. James Oberg comes to a similar conclusion near the end of his book Space Power Theory, which was commissioned by then Commander in Chief of US Space Command General Howell M. Estes III. Oberg writes that "the possibility of a preemptive strike in space will become all too likely. The strategic military gain, system vulnerability, and detachment from an earthbound public's concerns will combine to render space a target much too tempting to pass over."

Ruhm, Brian C. Finding the Middle Ground: The U.S. Air Force, Space Weaponization, and Arms Control. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2003. [ 2 quotes ] [ page 31-2 ]

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