Most would agree that space weaponization is not inevitable in the near term. Indeed, there is scant observable evidence to suggest that the military use of near-earth space will be substantially different in 2020-2025 than it is today, at least regarding the development and fielding of new technologies and systems that would broaden the use of our on-orbit assets from force enhancement to force application -- unless, of course, some unforeseen trigger event occurred to provoke it. It naturally follows that any U.S. space weaponization that eventually occurs, whether preemptive or reactive, will most likely be threat-driven rather than as a result of prior unprovoked choice. Former Air Force chief of staff General Michael Ryan suggested as much when he stated: "I don't think you'll see us moving real fast until some threat occurs?a huge threat, a threat that makes a big dollar difference. Then you'll see a shift in policy."

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Lambeth, Benjamin S. Mastering the Ultimate High Ground: Next Steps in the Military Uses of Space. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2003. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 119 ]