Technology Advancements Have Made Past Arms Control Irrelevant
As is familiar to any serious student of previous international treaties dealing with technological questions, treaties usually persist long after the technological assumptions or specific crises behind them have become obsolete. Thus the reinterpretation of ambiguous wording based on unanticipated technical developments can lead to the existence of a set of "shadow treaties" which diverge from the original in different directions depending on the interpretations and intentions of the different parties involved. Because of the rapidity of revolutionary change in space activities, treaties can age extremely quickly and can become ambiguous and asymmetrically restrictive within only a decade or two.
In addition, current in-force treaties affecting space activities reflect the prevailing situation at the time of their development, a bipolar and antagonistic international climate. Major metamorphosis has already begun towards a multi-polar environment with shifting and often obscure interests. How well the old treaties 'fit' -- or can be made to appear to 'fit' -- the new and very different situation is bound to baffle space planners for decades to come.
Oberg, James. Space Power Theory. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, 2001. [ 5 quotes ]
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