It is important to note that the Chinese don't even have to actually acquire ASATs for this nightmare scenario to happen. The Pentagon's assessments of Chinese ASATs are based largely on circumstantial evidence -- a Hong Kong newspaper report here; a commercial purchase by a Chinese company there. In fact, the Pentagon admits that "specific Chinese programs for a laser ASAT system have not been identified" and that press reports of a so-called "parasitic" microsatellite "cannot be confirmed." Such gaps in U.S. knowledge are dangerous, given the natural tendency of defense planners to assume the worst. Although Blue claimed that it had acted on "unambiguous warning" of a threat to space assets, the mere fact that the Chinese might already have such system -- or could improvise a crude ASAT in a pinch -- would create a strong incentive to use U.S. space systems before they were lost. It is not too far fetched to imagine the president, faced with a crisis over Taiwan, deciding -- as he did with Iraq -- that "we cannot wait for the final proof -- the smoking gun -- that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud."

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Lewis, Jeffrey. What if Space Were Weaponized? Possible Consequences for Crisis Scenarios. Washington, D.C.: Center for Defense Information, July 2004. [ 16 quotes ] [ page 20 ]