Space weapons would destabilize the international system because they give an incentive to strike first
Whatever the reaction of the international community, the introduction of weapons into space would be strategically destabilizing. Robert Jervis postulates that the military stability of the international system resides in two variables: first, whether defensive weapons can be distinguished from offensive ones and second, whether defensive or offensive weapons are superior. Since space weapons were shown earlier to be inherently offensive, the question of international stability ultimately depends on whether one believes space weapons are superior. Certainly, the US Air Force suspects that they are. The new Air Force strategic vision, approved at the 1996 Corona meetings, states "we are now transitioning from an Air Force into an air and space force, on an evolving path to a space and air force." What Air Force leaders have apparently concluded is that space is becoming a dominant medium of the future. If they are right, Jervis's framework predicts that space weapons will tend to destabilize the international order. Such weapons favor the side that strikes first and penalize the side that hesitates. In warning, Thomas C. Schelling wrote: "the whole idea of accidental or inadvertent war, of a war that is not entirely premeditated, rests in a crucial premise -- that there is such an advantage, in the event of war, in being the one to start it." The US Congress Office of Technology Assessment echoed similar thoughts years later: "Pre-emptive attack would be an attractive countermeasure to space-based ASAT weapons. If each side feared that only a pre-emptive attack could counter the risk of being defeated by enemy pre-emption, then a crisis situation could be extremely unstable." This particular congressional assessment, and that of Jervis and Schelling, invite American caution with space weapons. The United States may weaponize space only to fight a war that otherwise need not have occurred.
Ziegler, David W. Safe Heavens: Military Strategy and Space Sanctuary Thought. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, June 1997. [ 9 quotes ]