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History shows that even advanced surveillance capabilities do not give combatants a decisive advantage
 
Some proponents of space weapons believe foreign SRI satellites --particularly reconnaissance -- warrant weapons for preemptive strikes. There are, however, other ways to defeat SRI systems without incurring the costs and risks associated with space weapons. Consider that an opponent being as 'blind' as the Iraqis were during the Gulf War is a historical anomaly and not a prerequisite for victory. In World War II, for example, the United States prevailed over adversaries who possessed SRI assets nearly equal to those of the Allies. Allied techniques like concealment, communications security, deception, and operations security proved to be effective countermeasures to enemy SRI capabilities. In this respect, Americans would do well to recall the effectiveness with which the North Koreans, Chinese, North Vietnamese, and Afghani mujahideen operated against superpower militaries. These superpowers possessed space and air superiority -- accessing, at will, any spot in the theater with SRI capabilities. Repeatedly, however, they were frustrated by their opponents' low-tech countermeasures. December 1950 offers one telling example. In that month, a surprise Chinese offensive drove the US Eighth Army back into southern Korea. To support the Eighth Army, the Fifth Air Force was ordered to precisely locate the Chinese forces on the other side of the front. Robert F. Futrell notes that 10 days of unspared aerial reconnaissance and 27,643 reconnaissance photographs revealed nothing in front of the Eighth Army's position. What the all-out reconnaissance effort missed were 177,018 troops of the Chinese Fourth Field Army?true masters of camouflage and operations security.

Ziegler, David W. Safe Heavens: Military Strategy and Space Sanctuary Thought. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, June 1997. [ 9 quotes ]

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