It is obvious that American space systems do have inherent vulnerabilities. It is also obvious that technologies for exploiting those vulnerabilities exist, or are likely to become available over the next several decades. However, neither vulnerabilities in American systems nor the potential capabilities of others necessarily translate into threats. In order to threaten American space assets, a potential adversary must have not only the technological ability to develop weapons and the means to develop and use them, but also the political will and intent to use them in a hostile manner. There is little evidence to date that any other country or hostile non-state actor possesses both the mature technology and the intention to seriously threaten American military or commercial operations in space—and even less evidence of serious pursuit of actual space-based weapons by potentially hostile actors. There are severe technical barriers and high costs to overcome for all but the most rudimentary ASAT capabilities, especially for development of on-orbit weapons. It further remains unclear what political drivers—outside of American development of space-based weaponry—would force American competitors, in the near- to medium-term to seriously pursue such technology. Neither vulnerabilities in American systems nor the potential capabilities of others necessarily translate into threats.

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Hitchens, Theresa. "Monsters and Shadows: Left Unchecked, American Fears Regarding Threats to Space Assets Will Drive Weaponization." Disarmament Forum. No. 1 (2003): 15-33. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 22 ]