Space-based weapons, like all space systems, are predictable and fragile, but they represent significant combat power if used before they are destroyed --leading to a strong incentive to use these weapons preemptively, to "use them or lose them." The problem is further complicated by the difficulty in knowing what is occurring in space. As the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization pointed out:

"Hostile actions against space systems can reasonably be confused with natural phenomena. Space debris or solar activity can ?explain? the loss of a space system and mask unfriendly actions or the potential thereof. Such ambiguity and uncertainty could be fatal to the successful management of a crisis or resolution of a conflict. They could lead to forbearance when action is needed or to hasty action when more or better information would have given rise to a broader and more effective set of responsive options."

This lag in situational awareness can increase the effectiveness of attacks. That is, striking first is likely to mean inflicting disproportionate losses on the enemy; waiting increases the chances of suffering disproportionate losses oneself.

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Hardesty, David C. "Space-Based Weapons: Long-Term Strategic Implications and Alternatives." Naval War College Review. Vol. 58, No. 2 (Spring 2005): 45-68. [ 2 quotes ]