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Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ]

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Economic and Military Pressures Make Space Conflict Inevitable
 
If history is any indication, many scenarios involving conflict in space are almost certain to occur in the future. Each frontier that humans have entered has eventually ended up as a theater of warfare. On the other hand, the opportunities are there today for the United States, because of its unique position as the world's sole remaining superpower, to make the decisions and take the actions that will allow the world to more peacefully resolve these conflicts -- conflicts that will naturally come in the development of the frontier of space.

There are, however, and will continue to be, significant pressures that impact the development of the frontier of space. These pressures come from both economic activity and military desires and necessities. Both commerce and the military have tracked the frontier as it moved from land to sea to air, and they are continuing to follow the frontier into space. Commerce has always been driven by the need for access (and quicker access) to new markets and resources. The military continues to be driven by the need to protect both the core of a nation and that nation's interests in the frontier. How the United States responds to these pressures -- pressures that inevitably create conflict -- will define space, and the use of space, in the next century.
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 17 ]
Space War Inevitable Due to Economic Motives
 
The pressures on the space frontier are enormous -- from both an economic and a military perspective. Looked at in isolation, each of these pressures is severe enough to create conflict. In combination, they create the risk that future space conflicts could result in war?either on earth, in space, or both. ( More ... )
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 33 ]
Historically, Economic Needs Have Motivated Nations to Go to War
 
A nation's wealth, the economic aspect of conflict, is becoming ever more critical as the world's economies become increasingly interdependent. The Australian historian, Geoffrey Blainey debated the economic causes of war and conflict in his widely quoted book The Causes of War. He discussed how economics, although its specific role has changed many times throughout history, has always played a major role in fostering the conditions leading to war. While discussing the subject Blainey first quoted the Italian historian Luigi da Porto who wrote in 1509, "Peace brings riches; riches bring pride; pride brings anger; anger brings war; war brings poverty; poverty brings humanity; humanity brings peace; peace, as I have said, brings riches, and so the world's affairs go around."

Blainey then described how, over the latter half of this millennium, different links between economics and conflict have evolved. Initially it was economic need, not abundance that drove conflict. A nation in need saw opportunities available in more prosperous neighbors, and took action to gain the advantage of those opportunities. Alternately, war often occurred because a nation's leaders would try to divert attention away from economic difficulties by engaging in war. Wars also resulted from the search for wider markets, natural resources or new opportunities.
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 10 ]
China Wants to Keep Space "Weapon Free"
 
China has time and again proposed to the United Nations and the Conference on Disarmament resolutions to prevent an arms race in outer space. China maintains that outer space "belongs to all mankind and should be used for peaceful purposes. No country should develop any kind of weapon to be used in outer space: outer space should be kept "weapon free." ( More ... )
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 61 ]
Competition over Scare Space Resources led to Hostile Jamming of a Satellite in 1996
 
During January of 1996, the ITU supported the Pacific Telecommunications Conference to address both GEO crowding and frequency allocations and developed a number of suggestions to alleviate this problem. Only a few months later, as reported by the United Nations themselves, severe crowding in the geostationary orbital slots over Asia "led to the jamming of a communication satellite by PT Pasifik Satellite Nusantara (PSN) of Jakarta, Indonesia, in defense of an orbital position claimed by Indonesia. This incident focused global attention on a worsening problem of orbital crowding and caused the matter to be brought before the October/November 1997 World Radio Communication Conference (WRC) of the 187 member-nation ITU in Geneva." The conference, after nearly six weeks, made only minor modifications to the procedures for reserving orbital slots and came to no resolution as to the Indonesian jamming incident. ( More ... )
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ]
U.S. Should Prepare for Future Space Threats by Developing and Testing (but not Deploying) Space Weapons
 
The United States should begin an aggressive development and test program for a spectrum of capabilities necessary for space control. As history has demonstrated, a concentration on political means without the proper preparation to use military force will almost certainly result in failure. It should therefore be the goal of the United States to aggressively pursue development and test programs for space weapons that will allow future decision makers options to deny, disrupt, degrade, and, if necessary, destroy space systems that could threaten U.S. interests in the next century. Space superiority can, at least for some time, be achieved without the use of space weapons. ( More ... )
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ]
No Other Nation has Ability to Compete with United States in an Arms Race in Space
 
[Samuel] Huntington implies that other nations would only enter an arms race to preserve the balance of power. But what if that balance of power was already overwhelming in favor of one side to begin with? Currently the United States has no peer in the world either economically or militarily. The United States has become the world's sole remaining superpower. If the United States added space weapons to its already massive arsenal of weapons, would this change the balance of power sufficiently to require other nations to respond? This is doubtful. Any other nation - China, Russia, France, and others - would have to simultaneously develop a robust terrestrial military capability while at the same time engaging in an arms race in space. ( More ... )
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ]
U.S. should Develop and Test Space Weapons to Avoid Strategic Surprise
 
Failure to fully develop and test such capabilities and such weapons could make the United States vulnerable to surprises from other nations in the future. Gen. John L. Piotrowski, former commander of the U.S. Space Command said, on many occasions, that when it came to space weapons the one thing the United States couldn’t afford to be was second. A robust program developing capabilities for space control should be laid out to explore new technologies, integrate them into new weapons systems, and fully test them both in laboratory and field demonstrations. Since the goal would be not to deploy such weapons until absolutely required (and when that time would come is unknown), an urgent "crash" program is not needed. However, unless aggressive programs (in terms of funding and schedules) are developed, little progress will be made. In this time of strategic pause, programs can be implemented that are aggressive, but take the necessary time–time to fully explore different technologies and thoroughly test and check out systems when developed. If the systems actually reach maturity, and there is still no pressing need for deployment, they can be set aside until such a situation arises. ( More ... )
Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ]