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Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
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Many Nations have Invested Substantial Resources into Growing Space Economy
Civil and commercial interests in space are rapidly outpacing military concerns and are becoming a central focus for many national economies. As a service to the state, the military role is typically to organize, train, equip and posture forces -- complete with weapons -- to defend those interests. Space weapons will necessarily follow space commerce -- that is, they will 'follow the money'. A growing number of states have enormous commercial and social interests in space. The United States estimates that by 2003, the Global Positioning System (GPS) will generate $16 billion per year in revenue in addition to having crucial national security applications. Space policy experts estimate that by 2010, the cumulative US investment in space will exceed $500 billion -- equal to the value of all US investments in Europe. Hundreds of billions of dollars of US commerce rely on these space resources. And while the United States may be a leader in space, it is only one of many countries pursuing similar goals.
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Loss of Space Services would have Signficant Impact on Global Economy
Hundreds of billions of dollars in resources are invested in globally exposed assets orbiting the earth that directly support national economies and militaries, and in general, the twenty-first century civilized way of life. The total economic impact resulting from the destruction of space-based resources would be far greater than the loss of revenues from these assets, as many other sectors rely critically on satellite-related services. As such, any exposed and valuable asset is a target for adversaries – a target warranting protection. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Military Doctrine and Institutional Inertia will Push the Development of Space Weapons
In explaining one motivation for countries to acquire nuclear weapons, Scott Sagan explains: 'bureaucratic actors are not passive recipients of top-down political decisions; instead, they create the conditions that favor weapons acquisition'. Today we find ourselves in a situation with an absence of clear top-down policy guidance on space weapons, and in such a case, military doctrine can build an inertia of its own, and impact -- or even become -- the default policy. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Deployment of Space Weapons would Cripple Commercial Space Sector by Increasing Costs for Satellite Insurance
Beyond the use of weapons in space, the satellite insurance business is extremely volatile. In the last four years, satellite insurance rates have risen by 129 per cent, driven by increasing complexity and anomalies of satellite systems. The mere presence of weapons poses a risk, and insurance companies structure their rates on risk estimates. The resolution approach for the insurers will be to strengthen their exclusion clauses for acts of war -- and pass the risks to the financiers, who will have to decide to go to space without such insurance coverage, or not go at all. The combination of weapons posturing and/or use may well cause increasing debris, expensive hardening and increasing risk (perceived by insurers and/or assumed by financiers), all producing an inaccessible international commercial space environment. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Space Weapons would Hinder Civil and Commercial Space Development by Increasing Space Debris
Unfortunately, there are between 30,000 and 100,000 untracked objects between 1 cm and 10 cm diameter (large enough to cause serious damage to spacefaring vehicles), and an unknown but enormous number of particles smaller than 1 cm (many of which could damage sensitive systems on impact). While the space environment is extremely large and the probability of an impact is still small, that probability is growing. .or some space missions active protection through shielding is already a requirement (e.g. the International Space Station). Getting this shielding to orbit is an added expense to an already low-profit-margin industry. Any weapon use in space, but particularly proliferating weapons use in space, could readily make space a no-go area of dangerous debris, in the process pre-empting commercial and civil development. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Use of Space Weapons would Increase Space Debris, Crippling Commercial Space Sector
In addition to posing insurmountable military opportunity costs and the potential of another costly arms race, space weapons directly threaten the fiscal health of the space sector itself. Use of destructive weapons in space would obviously promote an orbital debris problem that is on the threshold of becoming a major inhibitor to space commerce. Currently, the US Space Surveillance Network uses ground-based radar and optical/infrared sensors to track roughly 7,500 objects across orbital space. That constitutes objects greater than 10 cm in diameter in low Earth orbit to objects greater than 1 m diameter in geostationary orbit. Only approximately five per cent of those objects are operating satellites; the rest are effectively debris, 40 per cent of which are fragments of disintegrated satellites and upper stages of rockets. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Through Technology Transfer, Many Countries could Compete in Space Arms Race
Technology transfer has been rapid, especially for micro-satellites, and many other countries may soon be capable of building their own satellites. For instance, the United Kingdom's Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd has undertaken joint technology transfer programs with Pakistan, South Africa, South Korea, Portugal, Chile, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and China. All said, a multitude of countries, at some level, could enter a costly race to space weaponization, or align with major powers that do so. Moreover, the first country to do so might actually provide the gateway to space exploitation. At huge expense, it will have broken the technological frontier only to realize that once the heavens are opened to weapons, everyone else goes much more cheaply. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Space Weapon Program Costs Tradeoff with much more Justifiable Military Modernization Programs
A more robust system, requiring 120 or more satellites, could cost as much as $500 billion or several trillion dollars. Furthermore, space systems -- such as the Space Shuttle and International Space Station -- have often grossly overrun their budgets, due to underestimation during the budgeting process and unforeseen technical hurdles encountered during development and construction. For the sake of argument, $1 trillion for a significant space weapons capability is a reasonable estimate. All of this presages adverse impacts on other national security programs. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Deploying Space Weapons can Damage a Country's Security by Increasing the Vulnerability of its Military Center of Gravity
Ironically, the posturing of more military assets in space could actually weaken the military posture of those that seek further military advantage in that domain. Space assets are already a center of gravity (CoG), or at least a critical concentration of military force enhancement assets. To deploy more systems in space in an attempt to protect this CoG only complicates the problem. In spite of the added defenses, the preponderance of threats will remain: denial and deception, electronic warfare (e.g. uplink and downlink jamming), ground facilities disruption, micro-satellites (e.g. space mines), direct ascent interceptors or even a nuclear detonation in space. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
War Games have shown that Using Space Weapons Escalates Regional Conflicts
The simple unilateral posturing of space weapons creates global instability in the form of encouraging adversaries to respond symmetrically or asymmetrically, heightening tensions, while at the same time crippling alliances. In this less stable global environment, there is also the prospect of space weapons causing less stable regional environments. Integrating space weapons into military operations could have unexpected consequences for the progression of conflict situations, prompting significant regional instability. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
U.S. Weaponization of Space would Complicate Diplomacy and Disrupt Alliances
Although it is unlikely that weapons in space would threaten or sever strong existing diplomatic ties, simple unpopularity might prompt a shift in the international center of gravity. Countries opposing or alienated by one states' space policy might gravitate to other alignments, possibly creating an international coalition to oppose the space-weaponizing country on these and other issues within international organizations such as the UN or the World Trade Organization (WTO). A decision to posture weapons in space might also diminish the ability of the space-weaponizing country to assemble international coalitions. In the case of the United States, such international political clout has been crucially important to the military, political, judicial and economic conduct of the war on terrorism. These forms of diplomatic influence might be more important than hard power in the maintenance of global stability in the twenty-first century. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
U.S. Pursuit of Global Hegemony through Space Dominance would Violate Constitutional Principles
The case can be made that the United States has a window of opportunity. As a relatively benign sole superpower, it could posture itself as a space police force and ensure the use of space 'for the benefit of all mankind'. But by design, the US Constitution was written to ward off such unchecked power -- regardless of who would wield that power. Applying the same wisdom George Washington demonstrated when he declined the offer to become the first American king, the United States, bound by constitutional intent, must resist the lure of becoming the first space hegemon, and pursue this unique leadership opportunity to create the international environment that will lead to the assured use of space for the benefit of all humankind. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Space Weaponization Key to Global Military Dominance
The prospects of a secure homeland afforded by space-based defense, combined with the overwhelming offensive potential afforded by the pervasive and immediate application of force from space, represents the ultimate high ground. Any country that achieves space weaponization will readily become a preeminent military power. Over the long term, space weapons may be the best -- and in some cases, only -- means to meet important national security needs. The military applications and national security needs best fulfilled from space include defense of the homeland against foreign ballistic missile threats, defense of national space assets, and future terrestrial offensives -- specifically in pursuit of time-critical targets. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Other Countries will Respond to Space Weapons by Pursuing their Own or by Pursuing WMDs
Global instability is the core issue in an international context. One country's pursuit and deployment of space weapons is destabilizing from the perspective of both foe and friend. Weaponization could prompt adversaries to develop ASAT or space-based weapons. In the extreme case, a peer competitor might engage in an escalatory arms race. Probably a greater threat, however, is dispersed, low-level proliferation. A number of countries are capable of building limited ASAT or rudimentary space weapons, and might choose to do so. The wide proliferation of micro-satellites or other ASAT weapons would threaten all space assets, due to the varying (and perhaps unpredictable) motivations of countries that could obtain them. Those countries capable of posturing space weapons are generally those that have the most assets to lose in a space war. The acquisition of such weapons might well present an irresistible first-strike opportunity for a country unlikely to win in a conventional conflict. Other adversarial states, especially those incapable of building space weapons or achieving parity in conventional forces, might increase their efforts to acquire nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, or pursue other asymmetric activities (e.g. terrorism). ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]
Must Assume that Future Adversaries will Target Space Assets
All modern states must assume that potential adversaries have studied the allied use of space-based resources in the Gulf War and the war on terrorism, and will seek to counter these military information resources by any means necessary. The allies could -- and, some would argue, already do -- face a symmetric threat to space resources from the global proliferation of space-based ISR, communications and navigation systems. The allies might also face a range of asymmetric attacks on space-related resources: physical and electronic attacks on space resources, lines of communication or ground segments; denial of services through electronic jamming; or deception by camouflage, spoofing or decoys. The space-based segments of military information assets are particularly vulnerable to attack by a range of weapons, including space-to-space and earth-to-space anti-satellite weapons. ( More ... )
Deblois, Bruce M. "The Advent of Space Weapons." Astropolitics. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Summer 2003). [ 15 quotes ]