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Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ]

Evidence Related to this Citation

Worldwide Space Programs Budgets are in Decline or Stagnating
 
Despite the substantial commitment of resources, global space spending and space programs in general are stagnant or even shrinking. It was noted that in the United States, for example, NASA's budget is some $5 billion short of what it needs in order to meet its own publicly stated goals. This is likely to entail hard choices between completing the International Space Station, developing a Shuttle replacement, and implementing President Bush's "Vision for Space Exploration." In addition, the US civilian space budget seems to have little prospect for growth. On the military side, there is little excitement about the Defense Department's existing space-development programs—only the Air Force is looking forward to developing new space technologies.

The same trend exists among other major space players. Only India and South Korea are seen as having rapidly growing space programs, at least in terms of yearon- year budget allocations. Other space programs appear to be fortunate if they can maintain their basic budget allocations, despite the range of publicly touted new initiatives.
Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 15 ]
Space Cooperation with China only likely after "Grand Bargain" is Reached
 
In the case of India, cooperative efforts did not commence until after 9/11, when US decision-makers felt that the overall strategic situation had fundamentally changed. Consequently, the United States shifted its stance from generally avoiding discussion of joint space cooperation to welcoming greater interaction between the two nations' space efforts. But because there have been fewer quid pro quos possible between the United States and India, cooperation has also been more limited. India, for example, has not been invited to be part of the International Space Station (ISS).

Given these possible templates, the speaker suggested that space cooperation between the United States and the PRC would likely have to be the result of a "grand bargain" between the two nations. That is, any major joint space effort, comparable to the Apollo-Soyuz joint mission, would have to be part of a larger set of exchanges and joint efforts that went beyond the space arena to the broader strategic relationship. As the speaker noted, given the scale and public visibility of space efforts, any such cooperation would have to be perceived as generating a significant benefit, or marking a major breakthrough in relations.
Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 10 ]
U.S. Unlikely to Pursue "Grand Bargain" with China but Interim Steps Likely
 
Moreover, it was noted by some that Congress is likely to oppose any "grand bargain." Some conferees suggested that Congress would require significant political change in the PRC before authorizing any kind of strategic opening. It was noted that the current level of US-Russian cooperation, which goes beyond simply shaking hands in space, to purchasing Russian engines and other components, could only have occurred with the demise of the USSR. Nonetheless, most of the conferees suggested possible means for improving Sino-US space cooperation, short of a "grand bargain." These included joint scientific experiments and missions, joint sharing of space surveillance data, and joint efforts at setting norms for space behavior. Moreover, while there seemed to be a general consensus that joint cooperation in military space cooperation is unlikely, it was also noted that US-Russian space cooperation has continued despite ongoing Russian research in military exploitation of space.
Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 19 ]
Unclear how much of a Competitive Advantage U.S. has over other Countries in Space
 
One area in which there was disagreement was the extent to which the United States will remain ahead of other nations in space. It was suggested that while US military satellite systems are probably still at the cutting edge of space technology, European commercial satellites may be no more than one generation behind American commercial satellites. The observation was made that European commercial satellites may already be on a par with those of the United States, and that American military satellites may be only ahead by one or two generations. While no one suggested that the United States is in imminent danger of losing its qualitative advantage, questions were raised about how much of a relative advantage the United States currently enjoys. There was also discussion about whether the United States is likely to be able to sustain its current advantage for the foreseeable future.
Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 21 ]
U.S. is a Hyper-Power in Outer Space and Space Policy
 
The situation is further complicated by the evolving relationships between the various space-faring states. On one hand, there is growing interest in more multilateral space efforts. For example, two days prior to the conference, Russia and the EU announced plans to expand their cooperation in space development. At the same time, many states worry about the future of US space efforts and the likely impacts of those efforts upon them, as the United States operates as a "space hyper- power." Indeed, one theme of the opening speaker's remarks, and of the conference in general, was that the United States is the largest, most important space power, with the widest array of capabilities and greatest financial and technological resources devoted to space. US decisions affect space programs worldwide. In space policy, all roads eventually lead to Washington.

The preeminence of the United States can be seen in comparisons of various nations' spending and resource commitments to space. Nearly 60 cents out of every dollar spent globally on space is spent by NASA. The US military space budget similarly outpaces that of the rest of the world. As a reflection of its national commitment to space, the United States dedicates more money per capita toward space than any other nation. Of the world's top five space organizations (in terms of spending), three are American: the Department of Defense, NASA, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 3-4 ]
U.S. could Cooperate with China by Sharing Space Surveillance Data
 
In light of this, it was proposed that the United States and the PRC might find common ground in stopping the development of ASAT capabilities and promoting mutual transparency. Cooperation in this area would simultaneously protect US assets and help Chinese commercial efforts. Another suggestion was that the United States cooperate with the PRC in developing international norms, perhaps in such areas as orbital crowding and controls on debris. The speaker also raised the possibility of joint satellite tracking and joint development of space surveillance data. Given the American lead in space surveillance, the speaker suggested that the US might forestall Chinese development of an indigenous space surveillance system by sharing such data with Beijing.
Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 13 ]