Home > Bibliography > View Citation

View Citation


Hitchens, Theresa. "Debris, Traffic Management and Weaponization." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 173-186. [ 5 quotes ]

Evidence Related to this Citation

Competition over Space Resources has Potential to Foster Conflict or Cooperation
 
As space has become more developed and more important to modern societies, new challenges to and opportunities for cooperation in space endeavors are emerging. As the number of nations utilizing space assets grows, competition for space "real estate"—usable orbits and radio frequency (RF) spectrum—is also heating up. In addition, all satellite operators recognize that the risks of RF interference and on-orbit collisions necessitate working out disputes and establishing cooperative measures to counter the threat posed by increasing levels of space debris. But some nations continue to balk at the increased spending required to do so. Finally, there is a widespread appreciation of the value of space for modern military operations. However, this has prompted increased fears about threats to space assets—and has led some nations to consider how to undercut any adversary's "space edge," further elevating threat perceptions and the potential for conflict in space.

Indeed, the technological revolution of the past several decades that has enabled more nations to reap the benefits of space for human development and economic gain has also sown the seeds for conflict. We are now at a crossroads regarding the future security of space—several major issues face space-faring nations and international institutions that require some form of collective response. These pressing issues include preventing a build up of dangerous space debris that could cripple future space operations; establishing "rules of the road" for peacetime space operations; and handling the emerging threat of weaponry in space.
Hitchens, Theresa. "Debris, Traffic Management and Weaponization." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 173-186. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 173 ]
Chinese ASAT Test Poses Serious Challenge to New IADC Space Debris Agreement
 
While the IADC/COPUOS debris guidelines development stands as a success story for multinational cooperative efforts in space, the implementation process was painful and not without controversies that may threaten the future realization of the landmark accord. Most egregious was the Chinese decision on 11 January 2007 to test an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon against one of its own satellites—just as the negotiations on the mitigation guidelines were coming to fruition. The Chinese test, which destroyed the aging FY-1C weather satellite at an altitude of 850 kilometers, created more than 1,000 pieces of debris bigger than 10 centimeters in diameter (slightly larger than a baseball), and an "estimated cloud" of 35,000 pieces of smaller debris. This debris, which spread out across several heavily used orbital bands, will remain on orbit for up to 100 years and threatens several hundred satellites in orbits nearby. NASA's chief orbital debris scientist called it "the worst satellite fragmentation in the history of the space age." The test came despite the fact that Beijing has been a key player in the development of the mitigation guidelines that specifically call for space actors to "avoid intentional destruction and other harmful activities"—a clause that some governments believe not only can, but also should be applied to weapons tests by the world's militaries. While China apparently has told its Japanese interlocutors that there would be no follow-up test, Beijing's assurances are being eyed with some skepticism. Somewhat ominously, China abruptly cancelled with only a few days' notice an IADC meeting planned in Beijing. The Chinese test also raises the specter that other nations will choose to follow similar paths, which would in effect obviate the newly minted mitigation guidelines.
Hitchens, Theresa. "Debris, Traffic Management and Weaponization." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 173-186. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 175 ]
GSO Crowding Leading to Increase in Jamming and Hijacking of Satellites
 
The past several decades have seen the explosion of satellite operators jockeying for usable orbital slots ("parking space" in orbit), particularly in the GEO band, where space "real estate" is at a premium because the laws of physics limit the number of communications satellites that can operate there. Currently, there are some 343 working satellites in GEO. In 1996, the ITU sponsored its first conference on GEO crowding and frequency allocation; the issue was again addressed in the 1997 World Radio Conference (WRC) meeting. At the 2000 and 2003 WRC meetings, developing nations pressed hard for guaranteed access to future satellite spectra. For instance, Iran argued at the 2003 meeting for a cap of 20 to 30 years on the duration of any slot allocation—a proposal that was rebuffed by Europe and the United States. There also have been a handful of disputes over the past decade or so over specific slot allocations, as well as an alarming increase in the incidence of deliberate jamming or hijacking of satellite signals. The most recent examples of signal hijacking include the months-long jamming of a mobile communications satellite owned by Thuraya Satellite Telecommunications of Abu Dhabi by Libyan nationals, attempts by unknown actors to jam the French Syracuse military satellite over the Middle East, and the pirating of an Intelsat transponder by the Tamil Tigers for bootleg broadcasts into Sri Lanka.
Hitchens, Theresa. "Debris, Traffic Management and Weaponization." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 173-186. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 176-77 ]
Unintentional Interference a big Concern for Satellite Operators
 
Nonetheless, it is unintentional interference and collisions that most worry satellite operators in GEO rather than the still relatively rare instances of open conflict over slot allocation or deliberate jamming. All satellites in GEO must make routine maneuvers to maintain their orbital paths so as to ensure continued connection with ground-based receivers. However, if satellites pass too closely, their signals will clash, causing interference. And of course, the insertion of satellites into orbit and on-orbit maneuvering raises the possibility of inadvertent collisions. With the plethora of new players in the satellite game, some less-experienced operators—particularly in Asia—lack familiarity with the informal rules employed by the long-established operators, and thus often fail to abide by those best practices such as notification of launch, maneuvers, and potential close approaches.
Hitchens, Theresa. "Debris, Traffic Management and Weaponization." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 173-186. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 177 ]
Indian Push for ASAT Weapons could Initiate Regional Space Arms Race
 
Perhaps more worrying is the prospect that China's chief regional rival, India, may move to develop ASATs or space-based weapons. India has a robust civil space program, and Indian Air Force officials for a number of years have been pushing for a military space program that includes space weapons. "[I]t is necessary to develop a sound doctrine and strategy for development of space capabilities and their utilisation for defence. This should help to develop space forces . . . to access, use and, if directed, control space for national security," wrote retired Air Commodore Jasjit Singh in March 2006, in the introduction to a book on India's military space needs. Indian defense officials have also long bemoaned the suspected Chinese support of Pakistan's missile development. Further, India, like China, has never really accepted the concept of "open skies," the norm established during the cold war in which reconnaissance satellites are given free passage over national territory. Trade journal Defense News on 9 April 2007 quoted unnamed Indian Defense Ministry sources as saying that India has already begun developing ASAT weapons, and has reinstated plans to establish an Aerospace Command to manage a cohesive military space program. "Sources in the ministry said space-based options must be used to protect national security, and that space programs should shift from support missions . . . to space control efforts," Defense News reported.51 Of course, a confirmed Indian ASAT program would no doubt be followed rapidly by similar Pakistani efforts, given their ever-fraught relations.
Hitchens, Theresa. "Debris, Traffic Management and Weaponization." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 173-186. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 181 ]