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Moltz, James Clay. "The Past, Present, and Future of Space Security." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 187-195. [ 3 quotes ]
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Consensus among Senior Defense Officials Shifting towards Non-Offensive Defense to Protect Space Assets
Third, many senior officials in the U.S. Defense Department have gradually come to realize that the most desirable stance for the United States in space is one of taking the technological high road: developing non-destructive methods of defending U.S. satellites and interfering with hostile spacecraft, as well as preparing for so-called "op- erationally responsive" space capabilities. The latter category refers to efforts to reduce reliance on single spacecraft for critical military support functions and to develop the ability to quickly replace any significant assets that might be damaged or destroyed in a time of war. This strategy is believed by its supporters to be more effective, more sustainable, more cost-effective, and less likely to generate hostile foreign reactions than previous concepts of "space dominance."
Moltz, James Clay. "The Past, Present, and Future of Space Security." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 187-195. [ 3 quotes ]
[ page 193 ]
Should not Let Pursuit of Perfect Agreement for Space Security become Enemy of the Good
Nonetheless, holding out for perfect agreements in space security talks—such as the complete bans on all possible means of space interference sought after by arms control purists and the doubt-proof verification required by hard-line skeptics—will continue to be the enemy of many good (and useful) space security agreements, unless national leaders show increased pragmatism. As in past periods, real-life agreements will never provide perfect security against all possible technologies of interference, and verification mechanisms will never be able to "prove" the complete absence of weapons-related capabilities (although they will get better and better at detecting and limiting them). However, partial or incremental solutions—such as rules of the road or specific bans against destructive ASAT testing—might work well enough to prevent near-term space conflict, if the relevant actors are willing. Steady engagement among key players over time may then have the chance to limit hostility and mistrust, leading to even better mechanisms. This type of step-by-step approach is not ideal, but, as both past and recent events have shown, it will likely serve the interests of all parties in space more effectively than taking no steps at all.
Moltz, James Clay. "The Past, Present, and Future of Space Security." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 187-195. [ 3 quotes ]
[ page 194 ]
Should Emphasize Common Security and Confidence Building over Arms Control to Achieve Space Security
While this article does not predict the future success of international efforts to prevent space conflicts, it does suggest that there are strong incentives for states to cooperate in space. Historical experience, however, shows that creative and sustained national leadership will be required if states are to overcome their mistrust and restrain natural tendencies toward active defenses in space. Critical among these factors will be the development and institutionalization of international space security talks toward a reconceptualized framework. Such a framework should downplay the current state- versus-state focus of many countries, and instead emphasize the notion of common security against shared threats in space—threats such as traffic control, conflicting broadcast frequencies, increasingly scarce geo-stationary orbital slots, and debris-producing space weapons. Perhaps greater awareness of the range of multilateral technical problems in space will encourage states to rethink some of their political assumptions about space competition, thus stimulating leaders to seek out new mechanisms for restraint-based cooperation.
Moltz, James Clay. "The Past, Present, and Future of Space Security." Brown Journal of World Affairs. Vol. 14, No. 1 (Fall / Winter 2007): 187-195. [ 3 quotes ]
[ page 194 ]