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Hitchens, Theresa. "U.S.-Sino Relations in Space: From "War of Words" to Cold War in Space." China Security. (Winter 2007): 12-30. [ 6 quotes ]

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Chinese ASAT Test will Push U.S. Politically Further Away from Negotiation Table
 
Further, if the ASAT test was part of an effort to drive the United States into space-related negotiations with China, again it may backfire – at least in the near term. It is true that there has been a chorus of calls for the United States to now undertake efforts to ban ASATs, or at a minimum, ASATs that create debris. For example, Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., stated: "American satellites are the soft underbelly of our national security, and it is urgent that President Bush move to guarantee their protection by initiating an international agreement to ban the development, testing, and deployment of space weapons and anti-satellite systems." Industry weekly Space News also urged the Bush administration to change course and consider "whether new and verifiable accords – such as a ban on the testing of anti-satellite weapons in space," noting that it "only makes sense to ban an activity that increases debris that threatens the satellites of multiple countries." However, there are no signs that the administration intends to heed such advice. Rather, quite the opposite. ( More ... )
Hitchens, Theresa. "U.S.-Sino Relations in Space: From "War of Words" to Cold War in Space." China Security. (Winter 2007): 12-30. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 22 ]
Indian Hardliners Pushing for India to Develop Military Space Command to Counter China
 
And the most worrisome question of all – beside the potential for sparking a Sino-U.S. ASAT race – is whether China's other rival nations, most specifically, India, will seek to react in kind. India's media, predictably, has been harshly denouncing the Chinese test as a threat to India. "It threatens our own expanding civilian space assets, undermines the credibility of our nuclear deterrent, and exposes New Delhi's lack of a military space strategy," the Indian Express newspaper said in an editorial on Jan. 20. M. Natarajan, science advisor to India's Defense Ministry, said the government would be especially concerned if such Chinese missiles could "disable" satellites with military and/or navigation capabilities and told reporters that the Indian government is assessing "steps we need to initiate in this direction." Unfortunately, the Chinese test comes amid a renewed push by the Indian Air Force to establish a military hold on Indian space policy and funding; a push that has been underpinned by Air Force lobbying regarding the "China threat." ( More ... )
Hitchens, Theresa. "U.S.-Sino Relations in Space: From "War of Words" to Cold War in Space." China Security. (Winter 2007): 12-30. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 24 ]
China may not have been Aware of Political and Environmental Risks from ASAT Test
 
Even more puzzling, and perhaps more worrisome, is the possibility – as has been speculated by some U.S. officials – that perhaps the Chinese leadership didn't really understand what risks the test might entail, and that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may have been less than forthcoming in briefing the leadership about those risks. U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley suggested in an interview with The New York Times that it was possible that Chinese President Hu Jintao and other senior leaders may not have been fully aware of the military's plans regarding the test. "The question on something like this is, at what level in the Chinese government are people witting, and have they approved?" Hadley said. 11 U.S. analysts are divided on that question; and it may be that the initial response from the Bush administration was designed to give Hu some wiggle room to "save face." Nonetheless, there is a fairly strong consensus that, at a minimum, the Chinese Foreign Ministry was neither informed nor ready to respond to the outcry that ensued.
Hitchens, Theresa. "U.S.-Sino Relations in Space: From "War of Words" to Cold War in Space." China Security. (Winter 2007): 12-30. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 21 ]
An Informal "Code of Conduct" Agreement Would help Tame Lawless Outer Space Environment
 
Finally, the United States and China need to recognize that they must make an effort to manage their emerging competition in military space in a manner that does not undercut their own national security, as well as the security of others. Breaking off nascent discussions about space cooperation in favor of launching a kind of Cold War in space is bound to backfire on both Washington and Beijing in the long run. Instead, a frank and open dialogue about each side's national security concerns in space is called for -- along with serious consideration of how a new code of conduct for behavior in space might be drafted to clearly demark the boundaries of acceptable and unacceptable behavior in space. ... Failure to act to restrain unfettered military competition in space is bound to result in a "Wild West" environment that raises the risks not only to Chinese and U.S. uses of space, but to the peace and prosperity of the entire world. ( More ... )
Hitchens, Theresa. "U.S.-Sino Relations in Space: From "War of Words" to Cold War in Space." China Security. (Winter 2007): 12-30. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 27 ]
Chinese ASAT Test Demonstrates how Space Weaponization would Decrease Investor Confidence and Increase Insurance Costs for Commercial Space Operations
 
Certainly, it is in the interest of no spacefaring power for near-Earth orbit to become so polluted as to become unusable – an outcome that cannot be ruled out over the long-term in a weaponized space environment. But even in the short-term, an increase in the threat from space debris could have negative consequences for space-faring nations and space operators. A report on the potential market impacts of the Chinese ASAT test by U.S. market consulting firm Teal Group found: "About the last thing that the satellite market needs now is the uncertainty that will accompany any moves to start blowing up objects in space or arming military satellites with protective countermeasures. The added debris problem is bad enough. An ASAT weapons race will have the effect of increasing the financial risk of any satellite program, and this will undoubtedly be felt most within the commercial market through decreased investor confidence and(or) higher insurance rates."
Hitchens, Theresa. "U.S.-Sino Relations in Space: From "War of Words" to Cold War in Space." China Security. (Winter 2007): 12-30. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 26 ]
Chinese ASAT Test may Spark Arms Race with Japan
 
Likewise, the Chinese action may spur Japan not only to speed its efforts at developing missile defenses but possibly to develop military space capabilities. "It may fuel the argument that Japan should develop space technology for national defense, especially as it came in the midst of the North Korean nuclear crisis," said Yasunori Matogawa, a professor of space engineering at the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, part of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tokyo had demanded an explanation from the Chinese government; while Foreign Minister Taro Aso criticized Beijing for failing to give advance notice of the test which he doubted was for "peaceful use" of space. Japanese officials have continued to charge that the Chinese government has yet to give a full and credible account of the test and future plans.
Hitchens, Theresa. "U.S.-Sino Relations in Space: From "War of Words" to Cold War in Space." China Security. (Winter 2007): 12-30. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 25 ]