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Thompson, Loren B. Can the Space Sector Meet Military Goals for Space?. Washington, D.C.: Lexington Institute, October 2005. [ 5 quotes ]

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U.S. Government cannot Rely on Commercial Market to Sustain Space Industrial Base
 
Unique Requirements. A fourth structural constraint on national-security space is the government's apparent inability to achieve economies of scale and other synergies by meeting its needs with products generated in the commercial marketplace. In the years following the end of the Cold War, some policymakers believed that the government would rely on the growing commercial space industry for many of its requirements in the future, and thus avoid the need to sustain a specialized technology and manufacturing base for national-security spacecraft. However, that hope was confounded by a collapse in demand for commercial satellites and a growing realization that national-security needs in space were likely to remain very different from those of the private sector. ( More ... )
Thompson, Loren B. Can the Space Sector Meet Military Goals for Space?. Washington, D.C.: Lexington Institute, October 2005. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 24 ]
Effects-Based Operations Depend on Next-Generation GPS
 
Third, problems in developing national-security spacecraft potentially undercut the navigational and targeting precision that is a key feature of transformational warfighting. Transformation as currently constructed stresses the importance of finesse over firepower in delivering tailored effects. Not only do such "effects-based" operations enable new concepts of warfare, but they also limit unintended damage that diminishes the political value of employing military force. However, today's highly accurate kinetic and non-kinetic weapons depend on precise positional information and intelligence that is generated from space-based systems. One such system, the Global Positioning System, is increasingly susceptible to jamming by adversaries intent on degrading U.S. accuracy. If the planned GPS III satellite constellation encounters the same development delays seen in some other space programs, that will present a serious problem for military and civilian users counting on its availability.
Thompson, Loren B. Can the Space Sector Meet Military Goals for Space?. Washington, D.C.: Lexington Institute, October 2005. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 14 ]
Uncertain Security Requirements are a Structural Barrier to Military Space Programs
 
Uncertain Requirements. A different kind of structural constraint arises from the unsettled character of the contemporary global security environment. Unlike the preceding structural issues, which reflected intrinsic features of the political, economic and technological landscape, the present uncertainty about future military and intelligence requirements is probably a temporary condition. During the Cold War, requirements changed relatively slowly, and usually in ways that could be anticipated well in advance of when new capabilities were needed. Today, however, there is great doubt among policymakers about the nature of future threats facing the nation, and efforts to construct a "capabilities-based" defense posture that can address diverse dangers have spawned more confusion than clarity. The reason this presents a challenge for the space sector is that new requirements -- or new ideas about requirements -- arise much faster than the space acquisition system is capable of responding. Unfortunately, there is no way of avoiding the resulting instability, because it reflects geopolitical trends at work in the global environment rather than management choices within the purview of policymakers.
Thompson, Loren B. Can the Space Sector Meet Military Goals for Space?. Washington, D.C.: Lexington Institute, October 2005. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 24 ]
U.S. Space Sector has Commanding Lead -- Almost Two Generations ahead of Other Countries
 
Operating from space does have drawbacks, starting with the high cost of getting there. But precisely because orbital operations are so expensive and technically challenging, the United States has been able to establish a lead in exploiting space that no other country can pretend to match. When a presidential commission stated in 2001 that the U.S. should aim to field commercial spacecraft a generation more advanced than those of overseas competitors, and national-security spacecraft two generations more advanced, it wasn't merely expressing an aspiration -- it was describing the competitive standing of the U.S. space sector as it then existed.
Thompson, Loren B. Can the Space Sector Meet Military Goals for Space?. Washington, D.C.: Lexington Institute, October 2005. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 8 ]
Underlying Structural Issues Impede U.S. Military Space Policy
 
Some of the underlying causes to deficient performance in the space sector cannot be fixed. They are called structural issues here because they either reflect intrinsic characteristics of government and industry, or are circumstances that originate outside the sector in a manner that is beyond the capacity of policymakers to change. Intrinsic structural issues such as the fragmented nature of decisionmaking in a government of separated powers or the urge of industry to maximize returns will probably never change. They must simply be accepted as inescapable features of the space enterprise. Circumstantial structural issues such as doubts about future military requirements or uncertainties in the development of new technologies will gradually change with the passage of time, but not in a way that policymakers can fundamentally alter. One of the perennial mistakes that experts make in analyzing the space sector is to propose that such structural issues be corrected. They can't be. Exertions on the part of policymakers may magnify or mitigate the impact of structural factors, but they cannot make them go away. ( More ... )
Thompson, Loren B. Can the Space Sector Meet Military Goals for Space?. Washington, D.C.: Lexington Institute, October 2005. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 22-23 ]