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Lewis, Jeffrey, Michael Katz-Hyman et al. "U.S. Space Weapons: Big Intentions, Little Focus." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 13, No. 1 (March 2006): 35-56. [ 5 quotes ]

Evidence Related to this Citation

Studies have Disproven the "Rods from God" Concept
 
Concepts for hypervelocity rod bundles *nicknamed ‘‘Rods from God’’ * have existed since at least the 1980s under different names, such as ‘‘Long Rod Penetrators.’’ Generally, the concept involves a constellation of satellites, each housing several tungsten rods. Up to 20 feet long and about a foot in diameter, these rods would launch from space at extremely high speeds, striking underground targets with the force of a small nuclear weapon. However, studies of this concept have shown that although Rods from God are theoretically possible, there are both physics and engineering challenges that may simply be impossible to overcome. Despite the inclusion of hypervelocity rod bundles in the 2003 Transformation Flight Plan, we do not see any evidence in Air Force budget documents to suggest research on such a program is being funded.
Lewis, Jeffrey, Michael Katz-Hyman et al. "U.S. Space Weapons: Big Intentions, Little Focus." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 13, No. 1 (March 2006): 35-56. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 48 ]
Mismanagement of Existing Military Space Programs is Biggest Threat to U.S. Space Assets
 
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that current space acquisition efforts will cost between $10 billion and $14 billion a year by 2010. Congressional appropriators have stated clearly that the Pentagon must reduce its request for space systems. In the 2006 Defense Appropriations bill, Congress slashed funding for two of the Air Force's 'transformational' space acquisition efforts -- Space Radar and the Transformational Satellite System -- to emphasize this point. Congressional concerns have also led to the restructuring of a pair of classified spy satellite programs. Senator Wayne Allard, Republican-Colorado, a long-time supporter of military space programs, expressed the frustration of many members of Congress: "I strongly believe the continued mismanagement of our space acquisition programs is a far greater threat to our space dominance than any external danger."
Lewis, Jeffrey, Michael Katz-Hyman et al. "U.S. Space Weapons: Big Intentions, Little Focus." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 13, No. 1 (March 2006): 35-56. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 48-9 ]
U.S. Air Force Planning Documents show Intent to Weaponize Space
 
Air Force long-range planning documents do identify near-, mid- and long-term capabilities that could help fight ‘‘in, from and through space.’’ Matching such wish lists with actual spending reveals a number of proof-of-technology efforts that may become full-fledged space weapon programs. Two recent Air Force documents, called ‘‘Transformation Flight Plans,’’ outline the service’s planned transformation to meet modern warfare needs, including capabilities for warfighting in space between now and 2030. The November 2003 version included an annex that named desired weapons programs. Air Force officials downplayed the 2003 Transformation Flight Plan as a ‘‘wish list,’’ but the 2004 version describes the series as a ‘‘reporting’’ document that does ‘‘not represent new policy guidance or propose what the Air Force should do, but is instead intended to reflect decisions, information, and initiatives already made and/or approved [emphasis added] by the Air Force capability-based planning, programming and budgeting process.’’
Lewis, Jeffrey, Michael Katz-Hyman et al. "U.S. Space Weapons: Big Intentions, Little Focus." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 13, No. 1 (March 2006): 35-56. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 37-8 ]
Air Force Focusing on Developing Directed Energy Weapons
 
The Air Force is putting increased emphasis on research into directed energy for both offensive and defensive purposes. Colonel Gail Wojtowicz, chief of the Air Force future concepts and transformation directorate, told an October 11, 2005, conference sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute: "Directed energy is the next weapons race," stressing the service’s "big push" to pursue such technologies. Furthermore, the 2003 Transformation Flight Plan notes a "recently completed Directed Energy Master Plan" that "articulates a strategy to develop and transition directed energy applications such as . . . space superiority and ballistic missile defense." The Transformation Flight Plan outlines directed-energy technologies to attack satellites, including ground- and space-based lasers, relay mirrors, and radio-frequency weapons.
Lewis, Jeffrey, Michael Katz-Hyman et al. "U.S. Space Weapons: Big Intentions, Little Focus." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 13, No. 1 (March 2006): 35-56. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 40 ]
Military Space Programs have to Surmount Significant Budgetary and Management Obstacles
 
In our view, this situation is unlikely to change in the near term. A space war fighting strategy faces a serious budgetary constraint -- compounded by the overall pressures on the DoD budget that have emerged over the last year -- that we believe will leave new military missions perennially vulnerable in the annual appropriations process to a variety of political and technical objections. Furthermore, ASATs, space-based missile defenses, and space-based strike weapons cannot be deployed without the completion of a very capable supporting infrastructure to provide command, control, and intelligence (C2I) functions. Yet, current programs to "recapitalize" current U.S. space and C2I capabilities are experiencing dramatic delays and cost overruns that threaten to consume the entire military space budget, leaving little money for new military missions in space. "Virtually every major space acquisition program," the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) has observed, "has experienced or sits dangerously close to a Nunn-McCurdy breach" -- a dramatic cost-growth requiring extraordinary intervention to save the program from cancellation.
Lewis, Jeffrey, Michael Katz-Hyman et al. "U.S. Space Weapons: Big Intentions, Little Focus." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 13, No. 1 (March 2006): 35-56. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 48 ]