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Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ]

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Key Threat U.S. now Faces is from Time Critical or Fleeting Targets
 
While the United States maintains the strongest military around, it faces extreme challenges around the world ranging from cantankerous state actors to borderless/non state opponents. Henry Kissinger recently noted “Never before has it been necessary to conduct a war with neither front lines nor geographic definition and, at the same time, to rebuild fundamental principles of world order.” In space, the threats that our satellites were designed to see and sense, ICBM fields, electronic emissions, and infrared signatures, are evolving and becoming tougher to capture. No longer is the target an enemy armored Division or a fixed weapons site. Instead, the new target sets are what the military calls time critical or fleeting targets. Unlike traditional targets, these fleeting targets--terrorists, insurgents, weapons traffickers—are not suited to detection from space. ( More ... )
Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 27-8 ]
Meager Chinese Space Budget is still a Significant Drain on their Resources
 
Chinese and Indian space progress has historically been linked to missile development efforts. As for the Chinese, they have "long aspired to be a space power" says Dean Cheng, an Asian specialist at the Center for Naval Analysis, yet he estimates the Chinese space budget to be only $1.5 billion to $2 billion annually. The recent launch of the Shenzhou, a manned mission to orbit the earth, has energized the Chinese space program. It is arguable whether or not the Shenzhou, very closely resembling a Soyuz capsule, was a significant Chinese scientific achievement as it drew immensely upon Russian design assistance but it can be said that manned space flight is definitely a sign of priorities in the Chinese government. However, the Monterey Institute of International Studies notes "the investment is clearly a significant drain on resources in a country still struggling to meet basic living standards for its population."
Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 26 ]
Many Countries have Competitive Space Programs but U.S. is still Dominant
 
A look at competitors in any upcoming space race produces a field that consists of Russia, Europe, Japan, China, India, and potentially South Korea. Russia’s program is cash starved to the point that President Putin declared his country "had nothing to be proud of in space." According to the Chairman of Europe’s National Space Research Centre, Russia’s investment in space has bottomed out at only 2% of worldwide expenditure, with the United States and Europe making up 90% of the world’s space spending. According to data gathered by World Prospects for Government Space Markets, U.S. space spending dwarfs that of the next two closest competitors, Europe and Japan who spend on the order of $1 billion and $2 billion on military space respectively. ( More ... )
Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 25 ]
Despite Advances, Launch Costs Remain Largest Drag on Space Systems
 
Launch costs continue to be the largest drag on space systems. The U.S. launch business has seen not only a reduced launch demand, but the drive toward economic launch costs has been largely unproductive. According to Benjamin Lambeth in his article Footing the Bill for Military Space, the constant-dollar price of getting a satellite to orbit has not changed much over the past two decades. Putting a satellite in low earth orbit continues to cost between $3,600 and $4,900 per pound, while getting to geostationary Earth orbit runs $9,200 to $11,200 per pound. Through micro-technology advances in industry, materials have become lighter. Power, a definite limiting factor in space, has become more efficient with smaller more capable devices requiring less electrical power.
Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 36 ]
Iraq War and Modernization Demands have kept Space Weapons in Check
 
Not only have international issues effected U.S. space actions, but competing interests are holding space back. Space systems are expensive. The U.S. is currently developing a number of systems expected to reach $5-10 billion each not including the $11,000 per pound it will take to launch them. The economics here on earth have a large impact on operations in space. National economic and budget woes have conspired to slow the rigorous growth once projected in U.S. space, particularly on the commercial satellite side of the house. Defense budgets, on the rise since 1996, have begun to retract. The U.S. national budget has gone from a surplus of nearly 2% of GDP in 1996 to a projected deficit of 5% of GDP in 2005. The cost of current operations in Iraq, estimated at over $200 billion has dug into military modernization budgets. ( More ... )
Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 36 ]
Focus on Space Control Tradesoff with Focus on Fleeting Targets
 
National security space leaders are now faced with a difficult decision—enable the U.S. to maximize the gains from the space commons by developing systems to find and track new target sets in the contested zones; or develop space control systems to assure command of the space commons by protecting satellites and ground architectures from a threat in space. It is unlikely that U.S. defense budgets will support both. ( More ... )
Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 29 ]
Last Two Space Policy Addendums show Shift Towards Space Control
 
Since entering office, President Bush has issued two significant space policy addendums; a policy on U.S. commercial remote sensing; and a policy on U.S. Space-based Position, Navigation, and Timing. ... Both policies are clear gestures toward solidifying the nation’s space control doctrine. ( More ... )
Henderson, Scott A. The Third Battle: Is the U.S. Ready to Wage the Next Conflict in Space?. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, March 2004. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 32 ]