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Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ]

Evidence Related to this Citation

Space Weapons will not Address the Higher Priority Threat of Terrorism
 
The most credible threat America is likely to face in the first half of this century is not a state-sponsored attack on its space assets, but rather intermittent terrorism generated by states or sub-state actors. Fighting terrorism requires imagination, well-coordinated governmental agencies, extraordinarily good intelligence resources, unflagging military tenacity, a willingness by the American people to accept a degree of discomfort, inconvenience, and uncertainty, and a high degree of cooperation among national leaders everywhere, including China. Fighting terrorism also requires having sophisticated national-security assets in space, including surveillance, communications, and geo-positioning satellites. But it does not require that the United States develop and deploy a space-control capability or place weapons in space-unless one believes that the bin Ladens of the world have advanced anti-satellite programs hidden in their caves and spider holes. ( More ... )
Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 185 ]
China is too Economically Dependent on U.S. to Confront it Militarily
 
China persists in underwriting America's instant-gratification lifestyle by exporting cheap consumer goods to the United States while financing a substantial part of the U.S. national debt by buying hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. Treasury notes. On the other hand, China is regularly portrayed by U.S. hardliners as the next great threat. In its continuing enthusiasm for buying Treasury notes, China underwrites the further development of America's new high-tech way of war. This is distinctly odd behavior for a nation that is presumed to be preparing for a High Noon confrontation with the United States. China is intent on integrating itself into the global economic system- strange behavior indeed for a nation that is regularly depicted as a military threat to the United States and, by extension, the West. ( More ... )
Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 184 ]
Deploying Space Weapons would Run Counter to American Values
 
In a world of sovereign nations, a unilateral U.S. space-control capability would raise profoundly troubling questions about the meaning of sovereignty in the 21st century. An attempt to deploy a space-control capability and insert weapons into orbit surely would be regarded by many states as an intolerable violation of global norms and of their sovereignty. Today's threats do not require the United States to pursue high-tech, space-based weaponization. To do so would threaten relations with the rest of the world and possibly set off a damaging arms race in space. ( More ... )
Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 186 ]
Hypothetical 'sneak-attack' on U.S. Space Assets is highly unlikely scenario
 
What 21st-century leader would risk his nation's survival on a risky surprise attack? Any nation that wanted to launch a Pearl Harbor-style attack on U.S. space assets would first have to conduct many tests in space. U.S. observation satellites and ground stations would detect those tests. Does anyone really believe that United States, even if an Adlai Stevensonstyle president were in the White House, would fail to respond vigorously to such a provocation? The United States does not lack for enemies. But just as tigers do not attack a healthy bull elephant, it is difficult to imagine that any nation would directly challenge the United States in space. ( More ... )
Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 184 ]
Pearl Harbor Scenarios are Unrealistic Scare Tactics
 
But even if a military and economic rivalry develops, would that necessarily lead to one of the many Pearl Harbor scenarios spun out by space warriors? The answer is almost surely no. Any substantive antisatellite threat to U.S. space assets would have to be preceded by extensive testing, including tests in space. The United States would quickly detect any such tests. The kindest thing that can be said about space Pearl Harbor scenarios is that they are classic scare tactics, the latest installment in a string of scenarios trotted out by hardliners throughout the Cold War. ( More ... )
Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 183 ]
U.S. Deployment of Space Weapons would Strain World's Patience for U.S. Military Dominance
 
A nation able to deny access to space to hostile states in a time of conflict would have the latent capability to deny access to anyone at any time. Why would any nation-state that values its own sovereignty be content with that? The people of many nations already hate, fear or mistrust the United States, in part because of its staggering lead in high-tech warfare, which has been repeatedly demonstrated not only in war games, but in actual battle. One suspects most countries already have come to terms with the fact that the United States will continue indefinitely to be the most powerful state the world has ever known, militarily, economically, and culturally. But is there a tipping point? A line beyond which even a nation as relatively benign as the United States cannot go without provoking reactions that ultimately would compromise the security of its own citizens? ( More ... )
Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 178 ]
Given U.S. Success at Military Innovation, Other Countries would Fear the Worst from U.S. Space Weapons
 
Further, what other nation could reliably bet that the United States would simply fail in its efforts to develop a robust space-control and spaceweapons capability because of overwhelming technical difficulties and horrendous costs? Americans, after all, are in the habit of making the impossible look easy when it comes to the technology of war. Thirty years ago, scarcely anyone anywhere thought the United States would someday be able to strike targets as small as a house from 20,000 feet and a dozen miles downrange with near-unerring accuracy. Now it is routine, and existing space assets-particularly Global Positioning System satellites-make it possible. ( More ... )
Moore, Mike. "A New Cold War?." SAIS Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 177 ]