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Smith, M. V. Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, October 2002. [ 5 quotes ]

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Indian Nuclear Test Showed the Limits of U.S. Coercive Spacepower
 
American spacepower clearly failed to deter India from conducting nuclear testing, but the presence of surveillance and reconnaissance satellites did force India to work around the gaps in satellite coverage. This begs the question of whether persistent coverage of India by spy satellites would have deterred India from detonating a nuclear device. Unfortunately, there is no way to answer this question. According to Maj Christopher J. Kinnan, however, round-the-clock satellite coverage does not necessarily bring about the desired behavior: "Coercive spacepower is not a foolproof means of bringing about a desired change in adversary behavior, no more so than coercive air, land, and seapower." ( More ... )
Smith, M. V. Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, October 2002. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 56-7 ]
Humanity has Failed at Past Attempts to Restrict Development of Weaponry
 
Humanity has attempted to prevent or delay the proliferation of weapons for centuries, but history suggests that mankind is driven to develop new weapons. At the Second Lateran Council in 1139, the Church banned the crossbow for being too lethal. Within a millennium, however, humans had built nuclear weapons and used them in war. Competition is part of the human condition, and war is a natural expression of this condition. If this were not so, states would likely have forgone their military establishments and preparations for war a long time ago. We are not at the end of history -- states still vie for power in an anarchic international system and will compete in every medium of human endeavor. Former Secretary of the Air Force Sheila E. Widnall said, "We have a lot of history that tells us that warfare migrates where it can -- that nations engaged in a conflict do what they can, wherever they must."
Smith, M. V. Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, October 2002. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 81 ]
U.S. Space Assets Economically Valuable not just for the Value of their Services but for their Contribution to other Sectors
 
The biggest change in spacefaring activities is the recent emergence and now dominance of the commercial space sector. Whereas governments drove space activity in the early days of space venturing, commercial businesses launched more payloads into space than governments in the late 1990s. Business revenues exceeded $80 billion in 2000 and are projected to more than triple in the next decade. While this is a drop in the bucket of the overall global economy in terms of dollars, it is far more important to consider the type of information collected or moved by the commercial space sector and the capabilities that will be lost if these satellites are negated. Commercial satellites carry banking information, credit card authorization networks, video feeds for cable and broadcast feeds, cellular telephone networks, pager networks, communications networks, and corporate communications systems. All rely heavily on the commercial space sector. ( More ... )
Smith, M. V. Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, October 2002. [ 5 quotes ]
Human Nature Makes Development of Space Weapons Inevitable
 
Regardless of which side of the argument is correct, the historical relationship between man and his weapons provides insight into the probable future of space-based weapons. Robert L. O'Connell suggests that human nature -- not technology -- is at the root of weapons development. Covetous motives required early man to develop new ways to kill an opponent. Today's modern weapons are more lethal than the sticks and stones of ancient days, but their purpose is still to gain an advantage over an adversary. O'Connell suggests that humans will constantly develop new weapons as long as their imagination discovers and exploits timeless and eternal scientific principles such as quantum mechanics and relativistic physics, which may give them an advantage in war. Therefore, the very idea of weaponizing space becomes a driving force to do so, like the idea of splitting and fusing the atom made doing so inevitable. "Because so much of this is a function of the physical universe and the laws that govern it, the process is, in a very real sense, beyond our control." ( More ... )
Smith, M. V. Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, October 2002. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 81-2 ]
Strategic Logic of Space Weapons Technology may be Irresistible
 
Formulating new and creative ideas for weapons may be inevitable, but man always has a choice whether to develop those weapons or not. Dr. Colin S. Gray cautions that the feasibility of deploying weapons in space does not mean that such weapons are strategically required -- or prudent. However, we are also warned that once someone begins development, the "technological imperative becomes nearly absolute" and that "Once the initial conditions are set, however, the logic of technology becomes nearly irresistible, at times sweeping us toward destinations never contemplated or desired." This suggests the choice to weaponize space may be beyond rational decision making. If this premise is correct, some actor may weaponize space as a poorly thought out reaction to some unforeseen security dilemma, or may already be on the slippery slope towards weaponizing space as it seeks to protect its space systems -- the two conditions that Watts believes will likely lead to the weaponization of space. The momentum is not likely to stop over the long run.
Smith, M. V. Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, October 2002. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 82 ]