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Deters, Angela, Jing-dong Yuan et al. China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons. Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July 22, 2002. [ 5 quotes ]

Evidence Related to this Citation

Chinese Strategic Logic Clearly Demands Emphasis on Anti-Satellite Weapons
 
Chinese strategists recognize the potential importance of ASAT weapons as a tool of asymmetrical warfare and Chinese scientists are pursuing research with potential ASAT applications. China's existing civilian and military space programs also provide a base of capabilities that could potentially be applied to the development of ASAT weapons. Although open source information clearly indicates Chinese interest and scientific research in ASAT weapons and technologies, the available evidence is insufficient to determine if China has an active program to develop and deploy ASAT weapons. ( More ... )
Deters, Angela, Jing-dong Yuan et al. China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons. Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July 22, 2002. [ 5 quotes ]
Researchers Conducted a Review of Open-Source Literature and could not Establish Definitive Proof that China is Pursuing an Anti-Satellite Weapon
 
Although open source information clearly indicates Chinese interest and scientific research in ASAT weapons and technologies, the available evidence is insufficient to determine if China has an active program to develop and deploy ASAT weapons. This conclusion is based largely on an assessment of China's current space capabilities and inferences based on open-source information about Chinese ASAT-relevant scientific research. Direct information on Chinese ASAT weapons programs and possible operational capabilities is limited and of questionable reliability. The evidence is insufficient to reach a definitive judgment on whether China has an active ASAT weapons program or a limited operational ASAT capability. However, if China did have a robust operational capability, there would probably be more indications (in terms of tests and physical infrastructure) than have been observed to date. ( More ... )
Deters, Angela, Jing-dong Yuan et al. China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons. Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July 22, 2002. [ 5 quotes ]
China Lacks Capabilities Necessary for a Viable Anti-Satellite Weapons Program
 
Despite numerous indications that China is interested in developing ASAT weapons and significant overall improvements in China's space program over the last two decades, China still lacks a number of capabilities that would be required for a viable ASAT program. These limitations include:

  • Limited tracking capabilities. China continues to rely heavily on shared and leased space tracking facilities, which might not be available in the event of a conflict. Despite a domestic network, two foreign sites, and four tracking ships, the Chinese tracking system does not have a global reach.

  • Limited launch capabilities. Although its launch capabilities have been improving, China still lacks the launch on-demand capability required for space warfare and for an effective ASAT system.

  • Vulnerable infrastructure. China's immobile launch facilities, tracking facilities, space infrastructure, and possible ground-based laser sites would all be vulnerable to attack.

( More ... )
Deters, Angela, Jing-dong Yuan et al. China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons. Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July 22, 2002. [ 5 quotes ]
Chinese Interest in Space Warfare Driven by U.S. Taiwan Policy and Missile Defense
 
Chinese attention to future space warfare has also been driven by such considerations as potential conflict over Taiwan and U.S. plans to deploy missile defense. These developments have not only strained Sino-U.S. relations, but also led China to view itself as the target of U.S. defense strategies. People's Liberation Army (PLA) analysts are aware of U.S. preparations for possible future space warfare against China. A 2001 war game held by U.S. Space Command pitted U.S. forces against an opponent threatening a small neighbor (i.e., China threatening Taiwan) and focused on the use of space assets by the two main countries. The war game's significance was not lost on Chinese commentators. As the United States intensifies efforts to deploy missile defenses, China's military planners are increasingly concerned about how missile defenses might affect their ability to deter unwanted U.S. actions, especially with regards to Taiwan. ( More ... )
Deters, Angela, Jing-dong Yuan et al. China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons. Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July 22, 2002. [ 5 quotes ]
U.S. Interests Prevent it from Negotiating more Effectively with China on the ASAT Issue
 
One China expert noted that if the United States wants to maximize the chances of dissuading Beijing from deploying and using ASAT weapons, then it should hold broader political and economic cooperation at risk. However, this would be costly for other important U.S. interests. Others agreed that economic interests and the need for cooperation with China on issues such as North Korea limit the degree to which the United States could make China pay a price for developing ASAT weapons. While international criticism of China for conducting the test and for heightening the risk to other satellites through space debris has had some impact on Beijing, calls for responsible behavior in space are unlikely to address the underlying strategic issues. A China specialist noted that the United States is still reluctant to accept a nuclear deterrent relationship with China that constrains U.S. freedom of action; a similar dynamic applies with respect to space. A strategist argued that this constraint is not wholly negative; it presents an opportunity to reexamine U.S. objectives and strategy in Asia and to ensure that U.S. strategy is consistent with U.S. interests.
Deters, Angela, Jing-dong Yuan et al. China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons. Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, July 22, 2002. [ 5 quotes ] [ page 5 ]