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Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ]

Evidence Related to this Citation

China a Threat Because it is Willing to Sell its Missile and Space Technology
 
China's threat as a space power goes beyond its own capabilities. The
Chinese export their technology, selling their ballistic missile
assets and space launch capabilities abroad. And they continually seek
to import foreign technology useful for their missile and space
programs. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 55 ]

China Likely to Attempt to Disable U.S. Satellites Before Attacking Taiwan
 
A nation with a few ASATs might use that capability as a deterrent, offensive
weapon, or terrorist device. Such a nation may not want the United
States to use its space resources over a particular area or during a
certain time period. For example, because it might not want a US reconnaissance satellite
to detect or watch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, or support a US
counterstrike against the PRC, China might use its ASATs to blind or
disable a number of US military space satellites until the successful
conclusion of the operation. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 70 ]

China Has Sufficient Resources to Develop Anti-Satellite Weapons
 
Only the PRC seems to have the requisite quantity and quality of launch and nuclear resources to produce an ASAT weapon in the near future. The Chinese have developed a series of space launch vehicles, have orbited space vehicles, and have tracked and controlled them. Additionally, their existing space program has become a valuable asset that they need to protect or, in some cases, use to deny space superiority to others. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 67 ]

India, Iran, North Korea, and China all have the capability to develop an ASAT weapon
 
All four nations discussed above -- North Korea, India, Iran, and the PRC -- have the potential space boosters and have demonstrated the ability and willingness to develop nuclear devices. They realistically could, in the next few years, field a low-cost ASAT weapon system powerful enough to severely damage or destroy a target satellite. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 60-1 ]

Many nations are capable of threatening U.S. space assets
 
As the above analysis shows, many nations have access to technology and systems that are much improved over what the United States used in the late 1950s and early 1960s. If these nations configured their ASAT weapons properly, they could pose a threat to US satellites. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 63 ]

U.S. has inadequate intelligence on foreign space weapon capabilities
 
Assessing the PRC's intentions and current state of its space program is difficult at best; the challenge is equally hard for most other nations as well. Gen Richard B. Myers, former commander in chief, US Space Command, believed the US intelligence community currently has a gap in tracking the abilities of countries, especially developing ones, to create ASAT weapons. This deficit has created some uncertainty about the threat facing our nation's space forces. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 67-8 ]

U.S. dependence on space systems makes them a tempting target for attack
 
The United States' reliance upon space systems for numerous military force applications is a tempting target to many nations. The post-cold-war era has left the United States with a downsized military in terms of personnel, equipment, and bases. This situation has forced our military to rely on a number of force multipliers such as space-based systems to overcome force size, enemy geographic advantages, and distance concerns. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 69-70 ]

Six nations are capable of producing a crude HAND ASAT
 
Those nations capable of producing an ASAT system at least equivalent to Program 437 and its Thor-class booster [HAND] include Russia, North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea or DPRK), Iran, India, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Libya. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 36 ]

India has the capabilities and motivation to deploy ASAT weapons
 
The pace of growth in India's ballistic missile program combined with its nuclear capabilities and Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons and acquisition of ballistic missiles elevate the South Asia subcontinent to an area of grave concern for the United States and the world community. India's potential to deploy ASAT weapons raises the possibility that India could attempt to damage or destroy the intelligence-gathering satellites of the United States and other countries to blind or severely limit the ability of those nations to monitor military activity and nuclear weapons tests in the region. India's potential to develop and deploy an ASAT system is alarming given the ongoing military confrontation between these two countries. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 52 ]

India is Developing Missiles that Could Launch an Anti-Satellite Weapon
 
India's first indigenously developed missile, the Prithvi, has provided the basic technology for further ballistic missile development. As a result of these efforts, the Indian government has several on-going ballistic missile systems in development that could launch an ASAT device. ( More ... )
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 48-9 ]

Minimal Technical Requirements to be Considered a Space Power Threat
 
In assessing the potential threat, we must examine which elements
nations or groups will need to effect attacks on their enemies' space assets. They will need a means of deliver - they will, at a minimum need a booster with a range and altitude at least similar to that of the Thor; and they will need a device capable of producing sufficiently strong EMP effect to disable or destroy the intended target. Unless such a nation merely wants to make a random attack on any orbiting satellite, it will need an accurate and timely detection, tracking, and targeting system. This capability requires the ability to support launch activities that include preparing the vehicle and launch pad; keeping a vehicle on alert or in a ready condition; effecting the launch; and possibly refurbishing the launch pad. How real is such a threat? The answer depends on access to space boosters and potential ASAT warheads.
Chun, Clayton K. S. Shooting Down a Star: Program 437, the U.S. Nuclear ASAT System and Present Day Copycat Killers. Maxwell AFB, AL: USAF Air University, April 2000. [ 11 quotes ] [ page 36 ]