Although the United States remains dominant in most space-related fields -- and owns half the military satellites currently orbiting Earth -- experts say the nation's superiority is diminishing, and many other nations are expanding their civilian and commercial space capabilities at a far faster pace.
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The longer the United States rebuffs international pressure to restore strategic restraint, the further other countries are likely to go in their efforts to emulate or offset U.S. military space activities, making space a much more expensive and dangerous place to operate than it currently is. The United States could probably sustain its technological lead and budgetary advantage for decades, but the U.S. military space acquisition program appears to have passed the point of diminishing returns, whereas other countries could still make significant advances in their military space capabilities for some fraction of what the United States is spending. The number of satellites needing protection keeps increasing, but offensive and dual-use space technologies are advancing and spreading faster than purely defensive ones are. Thus, if U.S. space dominance is defined in relative rather than absolute terms and likely counterreactions are considered, even the less ambitious form of the SPACECOM vision appears increasingly unattractive. Steinbruner, John D. and Nancy Gallagher. Reconsidering the Rules for Space Security. College Park, MD: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), 2008. [ 17 quotes ] [ page 73 ]
The French satellite manufacturer Alcatel, which ranks third in the world and first in Europe, has had a commercial presence in China since 1983 and earns 10% of its income there. In 2002, Alcatel and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) signed a contract for the joint development of the first Chinese high-capacity communications satellite. Buoyed by this achievement, Alcatel further intends to double its business in the region over the next several years. Consequent to the Cox Report and current export control laws, US satellite manufacturers cannot sell communication satellites to China. These restrictions have caused Beijing to adopt standards that minimize vulnerability to US embargo by increasing compatibility with European technologies. China has opted for the European standard for its GSM mobile telephone technology, which is important for future contracts. Regarding space missions, researchers from China Satellite Launch and Tracking Control General (CLTC), which oversees all China’s launch sites as well as launch and tracking activities, emphasize that "ESA standards have been playing a very important role" in such areas as "PCM telemetry, PCM remote control, telemetry channel coding, emission frequency and modulation and space-carried data management systems." Clearly Europe has made significant inroads into the potentially lucrative China market and intends to expand them. More broadly, "the EU has expressed the intention of developing its strategic partnership with [China]. Johnson-Freese, Joan. "The Emerging China-EU Space Partnership: A Geo-Technological Balancer." Space Policy. Vol. 22, No. 1 (February 2006): 12-22. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 21 ]
Space, like Earth below, is globalizing. And as it does, America's long-held superiority in exploring, exploiting and commercializing "the final frontier" is slipping away, many experts believe. Although the United States remains dominant in most space-related fields -- and owns half the military satellites currently orbiting Earth -- experts say the nation's superiority is diminishing, and many other nations are expanding their civilian and commercial space capabilities at a far faster pace. "We spent many tens of billions of dollars during the Apollo era to purchase a commanding lead in space over all nations on Earth," said NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin, who said his agency's budget is down by 20 percent in inflation-adjusted terms since 1992. "We've been living off the fruit of that purchase for 40 years and have not . . . chosen to invest at a level that would preserve that commanding lead." In a recent in-depth study of international space competitiveness, the technology consulting firm Futron of Bethesda found that the globalizing of space is unfolding more broadly and quickly than most Americans realize. "Systemic and competitive forces threaten U.S. space leadership," company president Joseph Fuller Jr. concluded. Kaufman, Marc. "U.S. Finds It's Getting Crowded Out There." Washington Post. July 9, 2008. [ page A1 ]
The study by Futron, which consults for public clients such as NASA and the Defense Department, as well as the private space industry, also reported that the United States is losing its dominance in orbital launches and satellites built. In 2007, 53 American-built satellites were launched -- about 50 percent of the total. In 1998, 121 new U.S. satellites went into orbit. In two areas, the space prowess of the United States still dominates. Its private space industry earned 75 percent of the worldwide corporate space revenue, and the U.S. military has as many satellites as all other nations combined. But that, too, is changing. Russia has increased its military space spending considerably since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In May, Japan's parliament authorized the use of outer space for defense purposes, signaling increased spending on rockets and spy satellites. And China's military is building a wide range of capabilities in space, a commander of U.S. space forces said last month. Last year, China tested its ground-based anti-satellite technology by destroying an orbiting weather satellite -- a feat that left behind a cloud of dangerous space debris and considerable ill will. Kaufman, Marc. "U.S. Finds It's Getting Crowded Out There." Washington Post. July 9, 2008.
One area in which there was disagreement was the extent to which the United States will remain ahead of other nations in space. It was suggested that while US military satellite systems are probably still at the cutting edge of space technology, European commercial satellites may be no more than one generation behind American commercial satellites. The observation was made that European commercial satellites may already be on a par with those of the United States, and that American military satellites may be only ahead by one or two generations. While no one suggested that the United States is in imminent danger of losing its qualitative advantage, questions were raised about how much of a relative advantage the United States currently enjoys. There was also discussion about whether the United States is likely to be able to sustain its current advantage for the foreseeable future. Center for Naval Analysis. China's Space Program: Civillian, Commercial & Military Aspects. Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, October 6, 2005. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 21 ]
On 25 February 2007, a suborbital sounding rocket blasted off from a launch pad in Iran, bringing that country a step closer towards a domestic space launch capability and membership among spacefaring nations. Several news organizations had mistakenly reported the test as an actual space launch, in part because of the lack of international transparency in Iran's space plans and because of statements the previous month of an imminent Iranian space launch from a leading member of the Iranian parliament. As the Iranian launch shows, proliferation of space technology continues its march around the world. Fifteen countries have joined the satellite-owning club with spacecraft of their own within the past decade, an increase of 50%. The steady increase of space capable nations is illustrated in Fig. 1. While most states contract launch services from established providers, others are seeking launch independence as well. A decade ago only half a dozen nations could launch their own spacecraft. Fig. 2 shows that this number will double in a few years, as nations such as South Korea, Iran and Pakistan field independent launch systems. Larrimore, Scott. "International Space Launch Notification and Data Exchange." Space Policy. Vol. 23 (August 2007): 172-179. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 172 ]
While the U.S. currently leads the world in space, there are numerous problems other than simple security threats that jeopardize our continued leadership. We face near-term mission gaps in important space capabilities, our space industry and workforce is losing its competitive edge, our engagement and influence in international space activities has declined, and there is widespread program overreach that is, there are more government space programs than the federal budget can support. In many respects, all of the nation's space sectors commercial, civil, defense, and intelligence are in worse condition today than they were a decade or more ago. To the point, as our security and well-being has grown more reliant on space capabilities they have become increasingly vulnerable to breakdown, disruption and attack. It is with this heightened sense of urgency that I now return to today's timely and vital discussion about space security. Let me address each of the three main questions. Armor, James B. "Testimony of James B. Armor before Strategic Forces Subcommittee, U.S. House Armed Services Committee." . 111th Cong., 1st. Sess (March 18, 2009). [ 3 quotes ] [ page 1 ]