As space launch and ballistic missile technologies proliferate, countries around the world need to be increasingly vigilant to potential attack. Correspondingly, the opportunities for misunderstandings and false alarms increase as well. The strategic consequences of a ballistic missile attack magnify the necessity to minimize these potential errors, to increase launch transparency, and to establish other confidence-building measures.
Keywords: Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles.
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The increase in the number of spacefaring states and launch sites raises security issues for many states. Several countries seeking indigenous launch capabilities are doing so in the context of regional arms races. The problem is that space technologies, and rocket technology in particular, are inherently dual purpose. Technology used to develop a space launch vehicle could be directly applied to ballistic missiles. Technology used for meteorology or land development could be used for reconnaissance. While there is by necessity a good deal of transparency in commercial space launches, this launch segment's market share remains about half that of the combined national civil and military sectors. When one state launches a ballistic missile or spacecraft, another state may not know whether a potential adversary is launching a satellite, a destructive ballistic warhead, or some other weapon of war. Larrimore, Scott. "International Space Launch Notification and Data Exchange." Space Policy. Vol. 23 (August 2007): 172-179. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 172 ]
As space launch and ballistic missile technologies proliferate, countries around the world need to be increasingly vigilant to potential attack. Correspondingly, the opportunities for misunderstandings and false alarms increase as well. The strategic consequences of a ballistic missile attack magnify the necessity to minimize these potential errors, to increase launch transparency, and to establish other confidence-building measures. Early warning false alarms by countries holding the world's foremost nuclear arsenals underscore this imperative. Leaders of the USA, the former Soviet Union, and later Russia, have had to consider their nuclear attack options at least four times in the past as a result of technical problems, administrative errors or system false alarms. Larrimore, Scott. "International Space Launch Notification and Data Exchange." Space Policy. Vol. 23 (August 2007): 172-179. [ 7 quotes ] [ page 173 ]