For the United States, maintaining the status quo condition of having no ASATs deployed is the optimal space policy. As described supra, the United States has a vested interest in protecting its satellites, and non-diplomatic solutions cannot protect America's space assets. An ASAT treaty, on the other hand, could prevent unrestricted space warfare and the indiscriminate targeting of American satellites. The benefits to the United States are not only military but economic as well, because the United States has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into its civilian and commercial satellites. These benefits, when obtained via an ASAT treaty, would secure America's conventional dominance at a fraction of the cost of a space arms race. Thus, a policy of no ASAT deployment is America's optimal policy because it is the cheapest way to achieve the most beneficial space policy.

China's optimal space policy is also the status quo because the current situation: (1) contains no deployed ASATs, and (2) space access is not challenged. The lack of an operational American ASAT benefits China because Beijing has invested heavily in satellites over the past fifteen years. In November 2000, China issued a White Paper on space policy saying: "the Chinese government attaches great importance to the significant role of space activities in implementing the strategy of revitalizing the country ... . The development of space activities is encouraged and supported by the government as an integral part of the state's comprehensive development strategy." The Chinese government followed up on this pledge with an ambitious plan that launched thirty-nine satellites in the past eleven years to give China the world's fourth largest satellite space program. With such an extensive investment in space, China stands to lose billions of dollars if it ever engaged in satellite warfare with the United States.

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Walsh, Frank M. "Forging a Diplomatic Shield for American Satellites: The Case For Reevaluating The 2006 National Space Policy in Light of a Chinese Anti-Satellite System." Journal of Air Law and Commerce. Vol. 72 (Fall 2007): 759. [ 28 quotes ] [ page 780 ]

 

China has actively advocated for a comprehensive treaty regime that limits the weaponization of space, and Chinese officials have routinely suggested space weapons bans at the United Nations Conference on Disarmament. Beijing would likely be willing to engage the United States if Washington was to seriously address the issue of banning ASAT weapons. The onus is thus on the United States to take China up on its offer to negotiate. The 2006 National Security Strategy correctly argues that the United States "seeks to encourage China to make the right strategic choices for its people[.]" With respect to American space policy, this means that Washington should encourage Beijing to refrain from deploying ASAT weapons and to avoid a costly space arms race. The best way to do this is through a treaty that allows both China and the United States to cooperatively break out of the space weapons security dilemma.

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Walsh, Frank M. "Forging a Diplomatic Shield for American Satellites: The Case For Reevaluating The 2006 National Space Policy in Light of a Chinese Anti-Satellite System." Journal of Air Law and Commerce. Vol. 72 (Fall 2007): 759. [ 28 quotes ] [ page 786 ]

 

The policy problems associated with the Chinese ASAT test are symptomatic of more systemic problems in Sino-American relations. Samuel P. Huntington, a noted international relations scholar, has argued that the "increasingly antagonistic relations" between the United States, the current superpower, and China, the world's rising superpower, are part of the inherent friction in the shifting of global power. Other political scientists have argued that the state of Sino-American relations is part of inevitable real politik or the beginning of a new Cold War. Regardless of the cause of the rift between the United States and China, American policy-makers must now decide how to respond to the Chinese ASAT test amidst poor relations. There are two basic possibilities: (1) the United States could assume that relations will continue to deteriorate so America should pursue military technologies to confront an inevitable enemy, or (2) the United States could decide that a new Cold War is not a fait accompli and that it should attempt to find cooperative solutions where possible. An ASAT treaty that serves the strategic needs of both the United States and China could be the first step in following the latter option.

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Walsh, Frank M. "Forging a Diplomatic Shield for American Satellites: The Case For Reevaluating The 2006 National Space Policy in Light of a Chinese Anti-Satellite System." Journal of Air Law and Commerce. Vol. 72 (Fall 2007): 759. [ 28 quotes ] [ page 797 ]