The US operation to destroy the USA 193 spy satellite was not justified on humanitarian grounds as the risk of the satellite re-entering the earth's atmosphere and spreading hydrazine was too small to justify the effort. Without this justification, the shot can be seen as a political effort to boost the flagging missile defense program or as a show of force response to China's anti-satellite weapons test last year. Either way, the test is likely to encourage other nations to make similar tests and will be used as justification for other nations to develop anti-satellite weapons.
Keywords: USA 193 (Operation Burnt Frost).
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While U.S. officials have depicted the attempt solely as a precaution against the slim chance that the satellite's hazardous rocket fuel could harm people on Earth, the test will inherently have spillover military consequences, the experts said. To accomplish this week's task, for example, the Navy has modified its Aegis anti-missile radar system for satellite tracking, making clear that a system designed for missile defense can be transformed into an anti-satellite system in a short time. The attempted shoot-down will also enable the Pentagon to practice using, in an urgent scenario, key elements of its space defense apparatus, including the Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and its sophisticated space identification, tracking and targeting system. The attempt will further provide an unscripted opportunity to see whether ship-based missiles can blow up the satellite just as it reenters Earth's atmosphere -- a key moment in any attempt to intercept an intercontinental missile that might someday be launched against the United States. "Whatever their motivation for shooting down the satellite, it's clear that this will be quite useful to the military," said Joan Johnson-Freese, an expert on military space issues and a department head of the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. Kaufman, Marc and Walter Pincus. "Effort to Shoot Down Satellite Could Inform Military Strategy." Washington Post. February 20, 2008.
It was not exactly a dry run for a missile defense test, but there are significant parallels. One is that neither mission — against a satellite or a missile — can be executed successfully without a network of space- and ground-based radars to track the target and to cue the intercepting missile. The satellite shootdown offered a chance to coordinate all those missile defense-related pieces. "The successful intercept is further validation of America's sea-based missile defense capability," said Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., the senior Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. The satellite, deemed worthy of a shootdown because of the slim possibility that its fuel tank could land in a populated area, was moving faster and traveling at a higher altitude than the missiles that the SM-3 had hit in controlled anti-missile tests. So it was a new challenge for the Navy missile. "It did confirm the ability of the SM-3 to intercept at a higher elevation," said Baker Spring, a specialist at the Heritage Foundation think tank and a longtime advocate of missile defenses. "Satellite Hit Boosts Missile Defense." Associated Press. February 22, 2008.
The ill-fated spy satellite failed immediately after launch in 2006 and was doomed to fall to Earth. The Pentagon insists it had to pre-emptively destroy the satellite to prevent public exposure to the toxic gas hydrazine - commonly used as a satellite propellant. This public safety argument, however, strains credulity. Yes, hydrazine is toxic. However, given the size of the Earth and its vast ocean expanses, a dangerous impact in a highly populated area was exceedingly unlikely - in the last 50 years, 17,000 manmade objects have re-entered the atmosphere without a fatality. Moreover, beyond a few hundred yards from the point of impact, the hydrazine gas would have dissipated with little effect. It is far more likely the Pentagon had a hidden agenda - and a crowded one at that. One goal was certainly to prevent the spy satellite and its sensitive equipment from falling into enemy hands. "On Space Diplomacy: Where the Stone Age meets the Space Age." San Francisco Chronicle. February 22, 2008.
The exercise has severe implications, experts say, as it opens up a once-virgin territory — space — for international weaponization. The potential for a space arms race has some worried. "It was an unfortunate choice by the United States that seems to have been unnecessary. The fact is that satellites fall from space all the time and the risk of it was fairly minimal," said Stephen Young, the senior analyst in Washington, D.C., for the Union of Concerned Scientist's Global Security Program. "But the implications of the satellite shootdown could be very severe. We're talking about a potential arms race in space." "It's a step backward in terms of weaponization of space because whatever the U.S. government's official stance is, the world perception is that this was an ASAT test," said Phil Smith, assistant director for Research and Planning for the Secure World Foundation. "Perception is everything as they say in politics. It's perceived not only in that way but that the U.S. is being somewhat hypocritical when it condemned the Chinese launch and of course they went ahead and did something that is going to be perceived as being just about the same." "Space Arms Race Heats Up Overnight." Space.com. February 21, 2008.
The planned Friday launch of a new U.S. spy satellite has been delayed by space debris from last week's destruction of its disabled predecessor, the mission's launch provider said Wednesday. Initially slated for a Feb. 29 liftoff from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the National Reconnaissance Office's classified NROL-28 reconnaissance spacecraft will stand down for at least two weeks to avoid the orbiting remains of the destroyed USA-193 satellite, the United Launch Alliance said in a mission update. "This is a precautionary measure to avoid possible debris from the satellite that was intercepted on Feb. 20," a spokesperson for ULA, which is overseeing the new satellite's launch atop an Atlas 5 rocket, said in a Wednesday mission hotline update. The U.S. Navy cruiser USS Lake Erie launched an SM-3 missile from the Pacific Ocean on Feb. 20 to destroy the defunct USA-193, a school bus-sized classified reconnaissance satellite that failed shortly after its December 2006 launch. The satellite's demise was a safety measure to prevent its half-ton load of toxic hydrazine rocket fuel from endangering people on Earth, Pentagon officials said. As of Monday, the military was tracking less than 3,000 pieces of debris, all smaller than a football in size, from 5,015 pounds (2,275 kg) satellite's destruction, Pentagon officials said. Left unattended, at least half of the satellite was expected to survive reentry to rain down on Earth next month. Malik, Tariq. "Spysat Debris Delays New Satellite's Launch." Space.com. February 28, 2008.