Now there is far greater recognition that space debris is an indiscriminate killer. It remains the biggest threat to satellites, the space shuttle, and the International Space Station. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has preliminarily reported that if another catastrophic accident occurs to the space shuttle, there is a 50-percent chance that it would be the result of space debris. ( More ... )

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Katz-Hyman, Michael and Michael Krepon. "Viewpoint: Space Weapons and Proliferation." Non Proliferation Review. Vol. 12, No. 2 (July 2005): 323-341. [ 15 quotes ] [ page 327 ]

 

Several satellite fragmentation and debris collision events took place in 2005. By October, five cases of satellite fragmentation had been recorded and two new accidental collisions identified. On 17 January, a US rocket body collided with a fragment from a Chinese launch vehicle that exploded in 2000. Two Russian motors also broke-up in 2005 ­ the first, on 23 April, was a Russian Proton launch vehicle launched as part of the Kosmos 2224 Mission in 1992. The second breakup occurred on 1 June and was associated with the Russian Kosmos 2392 mission launched in mid-2002. As many as 40 objects were initially detected from the second fragmentation, five of which were catalogued by the SSN. On 30 June, that same motor experienced another fragmentation and 50 fragments were initially catalogued. On 21 June, a Russian meteorological observation system generated one small piece of debris. And on 22 June, a Russian Kosmos 3M rocket body released a single piece of debris. The event is believed to have been caused by a collision between the rocket body and a small piece of orbital debris or a meteoroid.

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Collard-Wexler, Simon, Thomas Graham et al. Space Security 2006. Waterloo, Ontario: Space Security Index, July 2006. [ 26 quotes ] [ page 36 ]

 

Media reports about a forthcoming NASA study reveal that the risk posed by orbital debris to spacecraft may be higher than previously thought. Leaked information from the study suggests that shuttles now face a 1-in-54 to 1-in-113 chance of being destroyed by space debris. This is much greater than the stated NASA program goals of a 1-in-200 chance. In addition, NASA found that space debris accounts for half of the risk associated with spaceflights and collisions with space debris account for 11 of the 20 problems that could be most fatal to a shuttle and its crew. Because there is disagreement within NASA as to the likelihood of a fatal collision between space debris and the shuttle, NASA officials plan to conduct further study to provide more clarity. ( More ... )

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Collard-Wexler, Simon, Thomas Graham et al. Space Security 2006. Waterloo, Ontario: Space Security Index, July 2006. [ 26 quotes ] [ page 38 ]

 

Trash from China's satellite-killing missile test has spread widely in space, creating a debris cloud that could jeopardize spy satellites and commercial imagery satellites in low orbits around Earth, U.S. officials said on Monday.

Even the manned International Space Station is vulnerable to being hit by some of the thousands of pieces of trash created when China slammed a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile into an aging Chinese weather satellite about 537 miles above Earth on January 11, the officials said.

"The test created a lot of debris. It definitely raises the possibility that something is going to be hit, including the space station," Peter Hays, a senior adviser to the Pentagon's National Security Space Office, told Reuters.

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Shalal-Esa, Andrea. "Officials say concerned about Chinese space debris." Scientific American. January 22, 2007.

 

In the last decade or so, as scientists came to agree that the number of objects in orbit had surpassed a critical mass — or, in their terms, the critical spatial density, the point at which a chain reaction becomes inevitable — they grew more anxious.

Now, experts say, China’s test on Jan. 11 of an antisatellite rocket that shattered an old satellite into hundreds of large fragments means the chain reaction will most likely start sooner. If their predictions are right, the cascade could put billions of dollars’ worth of advanced satellites at risk and eventually threaten to limit humanity’s reach for the stars. ( More ... )

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Broad, William J. "Orbiting Junk, Once a Nuisance, Is Now a Threat." New York Times. February 6, 2007.

 

It is important to note that debris orbiting approximately 800 kilometers above Earth resulting from testing, deployment, and use of space weapons will reside there for decades. After debris settles into orbit at more than 1,500 kilometers above Earth's surface, it will remain there indefinitely. Collisions involving debris exceeding just one centimeter can be disastrous. In LEO, a marble-sized debris fragment can collide with satellites "with about the same energy as a one ton safe dropped from the top of a five story building." When these fragments collide, the quantity of debris increases. This prospect is compounded if each nation, in the long-term future, rationally takes advantage of the space commons and introduces its own weapons systems.

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Scheetz, Lori. "Infusing Environmental Ethics into the Space Weapons Dialogue." Georgetown International Environmental Law Review. Vol. 19, No. 1 (Fall 2006): 57-82. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 69 ]

 

Unfortunately, our adversaries do not need to be educated about our reliance on satellites. On 11 January 2007 the Chinese launched a mediumrange ballistic missile into space. It targeted an aging Chinese weather satellite orbiting 500 miles above the planet. The kill vehicle rammed into the target satellite, sending out into orbit thousands of pieces of debris of varying sizes with speeds up to 1,400 miles per hour, according to Air Force Space Command. Particles a few centimeters in length are large enough to cause major damage, which is what makes this debris so significant and why, given its potential to stay in orbit for years to come, it poses a long-term hazard to our satellites. The United States, with its space surveillance network, will bear the long-term responsibility for warning others of potential collisions, including foreign and commercial operators, and ironically, the Chinese. The likely result is that the space shuttle, the International Space Station, and many satellites in low Earth orbit will need to expend precious fuel to maneuver around debris. At some point, our satellite operators will determine the loss of “mission life” due to this extra maneuvering. This could be a sizeable impact when we are talking about multibillion-dollar satellites designed for lifetimes of five to 10 years. In recent testimony before the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, Gen James Cartwright, commander, US Strategic Command, commented that “we are going to have to make significant adjustments as collision, or, as we call it, conjunction opportunities occur over the next 20-plus years. . . . That is going to have an effect on business, on commerce. And it is going to have an effect on our national assets that are in low Earth orbit.”

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Everett, Terry. "Arguing for a Comprehensive Space Protection Strategy." Strategic Studies Quarterly. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Fall 2007): 20-35. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 22 ]

 

Two key factors affecting the amount of space debris are the number of objects in orbit and the number of debris-creating launches each year. Growth in the debris population increases the probability of inter-debris collisions that have the potential to create even more debris. A recent study by NASA has shown that, in LEO, debris-debris collisions will become the dominant source of debris production within the next 50 years. As debris collides and multiplies, it will eventually create a "cascade of collisions" that will spread debris to levels threatening sustainable space access. As of 2003 it was estimated that 43 percent of tracked debris resulted mostly from explosions and collisions.7Additional space debris in LEO could be created by ground- and space-based midcourse missile defense systems currently under development or other weapons testing in space.

Between 1961 and 1996, an average of approximately 240 new pieces of debris were catalogued each year, due in large part to fragmentation and the presence of new satellites. Between 8 October 1997 and 30 June 2004, only 603 new pieces of debris were catalogued, representing a noteworthy decrease from the previous rate of debris generation, particularly given the increased resolution of the system. This decline can be related in large part to international debris mitigation efforts, which increased significantly in the 1990s, combined with a lower number of launches per year. An increase in the annual rate of debris production has been observed again since 2004.

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Graham, Thomas and William Marshall. Space Security 2007. Waterlo, Ontario: Project Ploughshares, August 2007. [ 20 quotes ] [ page 23 ]

 

T.S. KELSO: In addition to providing satellite operators a quick way to see whether there are any predicted close approaches to their satellites over the coming week, SOCRATES also provides some insight into the magnitude of this problem. For example, for the SOCRATES report for the period from January 11th to the 18th, before the Chinese ASAT test was conducted, there were just over 7,000 times when some object was predicted to come within five kilometers of one of the nearly 2,800 payloads in Earth orbit. That’s over one thousand times a day. As of the report for June 25th, that number is now over 10,000 times a week, an increase of about 45 percent. Just over 2,500 of those close approaches were from pieces of debris from the Chinese ASAT test alone.

Many people will suggest that the risk to our satellites is being exaggerated by these numbers. After all, the conventional wisdom is that there have only been three confirmed collisions on orbit in fifty years of space operations, so what’s the fuss? Well, part of the problem lies with the word “confirmed.” Satellite conjunctions are not watched as they occur, but have to be gleaned from analysis of hundreds of thousands of observations of tens of thousands of objects when trying to figure out where a new unknown object may have come from. In reality, each object tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network is only observed for about a minute a day and the process of confirming a collision can take many months or years to resolve. Even if a small

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Campbell, John and T.S. Kelso. Examining Codes and Rules for Space. Washington, D.C.: George C. Marshall Institute, June 26, 2007. [ 6 quotes ] [ page 16-7 ]