Political factors are more important than economic factors in determining whether space will be weaponized.
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While legally banning antisatellite systems or activities associated with their use would not appear to add much value at the moment, it may be possible for nations to mutually refrain from activities that might be construed as threatening to the satellites of others. Such undertakings are not without precedent. When it has been within their general interests, nations have held back from employing certain weapons and engaging in certain activities during wartime, even in the absence of specific agreements. ( More ... ) Klotz, Frank G. Space, Commerce, and National Security. Washington, D.C.: Council on Foreign Relations, January 1999. [ 12 quotes ] [ page 18 ]
On the other hand, there are those who argue the converse, specifically, that commerce will drive weapons into space as countries seek to defend their assets. As Franz Gayl argues: "... as with aviation, access and technology will drive forward to exploit any and all warfighting relevance, application, and advantage from space, quite independent of a nation's will to prevent it." However, such prospects hold true only if commercial actors remained as tied to individual nations as they were in the 19th century model of mercantilism. Such conditions are unlikely to govern in space, given the rapidly growing internationalization of space commerce, where companies may use technology from several countries, be based in another, and receive funding or contracts from customers in still other parts of the world. Such factors are likely to mitigate the purported commercial "demand" for defenses. For these reasons, predictions regarding the future of space security based on the experience of other past environments and periods should be viewed with at least some skepticism. Thus far, arguments and predictions about "inevitable" outcomes in space have held up surprisingly poorly. Moltz, James Clay. "Protecting Safe Access to Space: Lessons from the First 50 Years of Space Security." Space Policy. Vol. 23 (November 2007): 199-205. [ 12 quotes ] [ page 204 ]