If history is any indication, many scenarios involving conflict in space are almost certain to occur in the future. Each frontier that humans have entered has eventually ended up as a theater of warfare. On the other hand, the opportunities are there today for the United States, because of its unique position as the world's sole remaining superpower, to make the decisions and take the actions that will allow the world to more peacefully resolve these conflicts -- conflicts that will naturally come in the development of the frontier of space.

There are, however, and will continue to be, significant pressures that impact the development of the frontier of space. These pressures come from both economic activity and military desires and necessities. Both commerce and the military have tracked the frontier as it moved from land to sea to air, and they are continuing to follow the frontier into space. Commerce has always been driven by the need for access (and quicker access) to new markets and resources. The military continues to be driven by the need to protect both the core of a nation and that nation's interests in the frontier. How the United States responds to these pressures -- pressures that inevitably create conflict -- will define space, and the use of space, in the next century.

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Hyten, John E. A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War: Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security, April 2000. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 17 ]

 

Space power and space warfare are coming. The only issues are how and when. This uncompromising prediction could be upset only in the unlikely circumstance that a truly political peace broke out and was sustained, on Earth. Even in that improbable event, still one might be anxious about the kind of futures signaled in the scenarios of the movies Independence Day and Starship Troopers. Far-fetched, even comic such movies may well be, but they can act as a reminder that we may be at peace with ourselves. But would the universe be at peace with us? ( More ... )

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Gray, Colin S. "Space Power and the Revolution in Military Affairs: A Glass Half Full?." Air & Space Power Journal. XIII, No. 3 (Fall 1999). [ 2 quotes ]

 

The number of states emphasizing the security uses of space in national policies continued to increase in 2005. In January, the Japanese government introduced a plan to deploy a new generation of spy satellites. Japan also continued talks with the US throughout 2005 on furthering missile defense cooperation. The Israeli Air Force unveiled plans in June to launch additional surveillance satellites to boost intelligence capabilities and to manufacture micro-satellites that could provide information on combat zones (see Space Support for Military Operations). In addition, Yuval Steinitz, chairman of Israel's Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee, stated that defense and industry officials should consider future developments of "anti-satellite missiles" and "satellite-attacking lasers." India also continued to pay greater attention to the military uses of space. The Indian Air Force urged the government to set up a Strategic Aerospace Command to purportedly facilitate the development of capabilities to degrade space weapons in preparation for "future star wars." While some reports contend that the government has rejected the proposals, Indian Air Force Chief S. P. Tyagi insists that the recommendations are still under consideration, particularly in light of the Parliamentary Standing Committee's declarations that India needs the ability to counter any threat from space. Media reports throughout 2005 revealed significant speculation about China's space capabilities and military-related space intentions, although Chinese officials maintain that the country's space program is solely for peaceful purposes.

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Collard-Wexler, Simon, Thomas Graham et al. Space Security 2006. Waterloo, Ontario: Space Security Index, July 2006. [ 26 quotes ] [ page 60 ]

 

Thus far, research for U.S. space weapons includes: (1) the ballistic missile defense system (BMDS); (2) the Experimental Spacecraft Systems, which are microsatellites that can disturb and disrupt other satellites; (3) the Near Field Infrared Experiment, which encompasses tests for destroying objects in orbit; (4) the Microsatellite Propulsion Experiment, which involves launching kill vehicles to destroy satellites; and (5) the Hypervelocity Rod Bundles (dubbed "Rods from God"), which plunge from space to destroy targets on Earth. Further, the United States is still pursuing laser research, along with the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, which could operate as an anti-satellite weapon, and the Kinetic Energy Anti-Satellite Weapon (KE-ASAT), a weapon designed to launch from Earth to destroy orbital satellites with energy equivalent to an explosion of almost one ton of TNT. While all of these potential space weapons are still in the research and development stage, the sheer number of programs currently being funded points to the imminence of space weaponization. Illustrating this point, the Department of Defense's budget proposal for the 2007 fiscal year includes funding for "a missile launched at a small satellite in orbit, testing a small space vehicle that could disperse weapons while traveling at twenty times the speed of sound, and determining whether high-powered ground-based lasers can effectively destroy enemy satellites."

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Scheetz, Lori. "Infusing Environmental Ethics into the Space Weapons Dialogue." Georgetown International Environmental Law Review. Vol. 19, No. 1 (Fall 2006): 57-82. [ 8 quotes ] [ page 61 ]